Foreign media commentators have noted that historically, crypto bear markets typically last 8 to 12 months from peak to trough. Based on this experience, if the current cycle peaks at the end of 2025, then this deep pullback in mid-2026 may already be in its latter half.

The historical range is mostly between 8 and 12 months.

The article outlines two typical downward cycles. In the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin bottomed out about a year after falling from its previous high, with a maximum drop of approximately 84%. The 2022 bear market lasted for a similar duration, with Bitcoin bottoming out later that year after the FTX incident, falling about 77% from its peak.

The article argues that although the triggering factors of these two cycles are different, they are quite similar in terms of duration and pullback magnitude. Therefore, 8 to 12 months can be used as a reference range for observing this round of market.

However, the article also distinguishes between the "bear market downturn phase" and the "complete cycle." The former usually refers to the rapid decline from the high point to the low point, while the latter also includes bottoming out and slow recovery, which often lasts longer.

Three factors determine when the decline will end

The article argues that the bear market will not end immediately when sentiment improves, but will go through several stages.

• The first step is deleveraging; excessively high borrowing positions need to be gradually cleared out through multiple rounds of declines and liquidations.
• The second stage is the clearing of market sentiment, with the market shifting from optimism to panic, and then to investors abandoning their holdings.
• Thirdly, genuine demand needs to be rebuilt, and new buying power needs to re-emerge at lower price levels.

The article mentions that in June 2026, the market saw more than $1 billion in positions liquidated. Such concentrated liquidations are usually part of the deleveraging process, but historically they have not happened more than once.

This round of market activity is showing signs of nearing its end.

In terms of timing, the article argues that the current decline is largely consistent with historical patterns. Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 22% this year, Ethereum by nearly 29% in a single quarter, the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 13, and Cardano has fallen to a 6-year low, all indicating that the market remains significantly weak.

However, the article also points out that the current pullback is still shallower than the most extreme phases in 2018 and 2022, so whether the market has truly bottomed out cannot be determined solely by the length of time.

The author lists several key observations, including whether the extreme panic persists, whether selling pressure eases, whether institutional funds return to the market, and whether ETF flows, Federal Reserve policy, and the broader risk asset environment improve. Based on this, the article argues that if the historical pattern continues, a market recovery may occur later in 2026, but this current trajectory may not be a complete replica of the past.