Bitcoin rebounded to $61,966 during the Asian session, temporarily stabilizing around $60,000. However, this rebound has not eliminated the market's core question: is the current level a temporary support level, or just a brief pause in the downtrend?
Long-term support levels are attracting attention again.
The market is refocusing its attention on the 200-week exponential moving average. Several traders have noted that this level has historically been considered a long-term reference point during Bitcoin's bear markets, with bottoming signals appearing near it on multiple previous cycles.
However, the depth of this drop makes the assessment more complex. Even if key support levels attract buying, the price may not recover quickly. Some traders also point out that in the past, once Bitcoin broke through important support levels, it often continued to decline and struggled to return to its original position for a considerable period.
The current difference is that BTC has temporarily held near its previous low. If buying continues in this area, the market may first enter a wider trading range rather than immediately showing a clear reversal.
- Focus range: Approximately $60,000 to $80,000
- Current price: Approximately US$61,966
- Sensitive level below: approximately $55,000
The opinions of bulls and bears continue to diverge.
There is a clear divergence in market opinion regarding directional judgment. The bearish view holds that if the current downward momentum does not weaken significantly, Bitcoin's next major support level may be around $55,000, or even lower. This judgment is based on the premise that BTC fails to recover stronger resistance levels for an extended period.
Some traders believe that the current trend may be forming a "bear trap." The basis for this view is that when market sentiment weakens significantly and even previously bullish participants begin to lose confidence, prices are more likely to approach a turning point.
This view does not imply a trend reversal, but rather emphasizes that after a significant pullback and approaching key support, the room for further shorting may be narrowing. If sellers fail to quickly push prices lower, subsequent volatility may instead squeeze out late-entering short positions.
Exchange reserves send a cautious signal
Compared to the price itself, the signals given by on-chain flows are more noteworthy. Bitfinex, citing CryptoQuant data, reported that after this round of large-scale liquidations and a drop of approximately 26%, exchange Bitcoin reserves rose to 2.72 million, reversing the outflow trend that had lasted for several months.
This change is significant because in the past, when many local bottoms formed, exchange reserves typically decreased. This means that investors transferred Bitcoin off trading platforms, reducing the amount of Bitcoin available for sale in the market, often accompanied by more explicit buying activity.
This time, however, the situation is exactly the opposite. During the price decline, exchange reserves actually rebounded, suggesting that some holders may be transferring Bitcoin back to trading platforms, thus increasing potential selling pressure. This doesn't directly prove that the market will definitely continue to fall, but it at least indicates that current fund flows haven't yet provided strong confirmation of a bottom.
Overall, while Bitcoin held its key support level, there remains a significant divergence between price stabilization and on-chain fund flows. Whether this short-term support can evolve into a new cycle bottom depends on whether subsequent buying can be sustained and whether exchange reserves resume their decline.
