Bitcoin has climbed back above $63,000, but foreign media believe the foundation for this rebound remains weak. Last week, 11 U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a combined net outflow of $1.72 billion, and the pace of redemptions has accelerated for three consecutive weeks, indicating that funds are still withdrawing.
ETF outflows and low trading volume coexist.
According to SoSoValue data, the total trading volume of these 11 ETFs last week was $18.43 billion. The article points out that this trading volume is not high, but it is accompanied by a significant net outflow, indicating that the market is more likely to be continuously reducing positions, rather than a rapid clearing after a concentrated panic.
In contrast, in early February of this year, Bitcoin also fell to around $60,000. At that time, ETFs saw a weekly net outflow of only $318 million, but the total trading volume reached a staggering $46.15 billion. Foreign media believe that such high trading volume and dramatic turnover are more akin to a phase of clearing out after a fierce battle between bulls and bears.
- ETFs saw net outflows of $1.72 billion last week.
- Total ETF trading volume last week: $18.43 billion
- Net outflow during the similar downturn in early February: $318 million
The sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen.
The article argues that what is more alarming at present is the increasing outflow of funds, but the lack of a corresponding increase in trading activity. This usually means insufficient buying support, and prices may fluctuate again after a rebound.
Foreign media outlets have concluded that Bitcoin's recent rebound from its lows cannot yet be considered the start of a more definitive upward trend. For the market to stabilize further, a significant recovery in ETF demand may be necessary.
The article also mentions that the recent pullback has brought Bitcoin close to a significant retracement level. If it continues to fall below this level, selling pressure could intensify further. However, this is a technical observation; the article's focus remains on changes in fund flows.
IPOs and inflation data influence liquidity.
Besides ETF liquidity, the article also mentions two other variables that could affect risky assets. One is the potential stock issuance arrangements for SpaceX and Anthropic. Foreign media believe that if such large IPOs proceed, they could absorb liquidity from a wider market, making it difficult for crypto assets to remain completely independent.
Secondly, there's the US inflation data for May, to be released this week. If the data continues to be strong, volatility in bonds and risk assets could increase. The article mentions that the market expects the cost of living to rise above 4% again this month.
Overall, foreign media's core assessment is that although Bitcoin has rebounded in the short term, ETF funds have not yet flowed back in, and the external liquidity environment has not improved significantly. Against this backdrop, price recovery still lacks stronger support.
