Foreign media reports indicate that the cryptocurrency market has already shown signs of cooling liquidity as the June meetings of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve approach. The article argues that if the Bank of Japan continues to tighten policy while the Federal Reserve signals a more cautious stance, risk assets may face greater volatility, and the pressure on the cryptocurrency market is particularly noteworthy.
The Bank of Japan meeting became the focus.
The article notes that the US dollar has strengthened against the Japanese yen for four consecutive weeks, once again approaching the 160 level. This indicates a continued appreciation of the dollar against the yen, and has also drawn renewed market attention to the pressure on the Japanese financial system and the resulting changes in global liquidity.
Meanwhile, Japanese inflation data continues to rise. TradingEconomics data shows that Japan's CPI rose to 113 in April, up from 112 in March. The article argues that this reduces the Bank of Japan's room for maneuver in maintaining interest rates, and market expectations for another rate hike are rising.
According to the article, the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting on June 15-16, and the market has already priced in a high expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike. The article also mentions that since 2024, the cryptocurrency market has experienced significant corrections following several major rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
Stablecoin funds flow out first
Ahead of the policy meeting, on-chain funding was already showing signs of weakness. The article states that stablecoins saw outflows exceeding $3 billion this week, bringing their total market capitalization down to approximately $316 billion, near a two-month low and more than $6 billion less than the peak of approximately $322 billion at the end of May.
- Stablecoin outflows this week: Over $3 billion
- Total market capitalization of stablecoins: approximately US$316 billion
- Falling from the high point at the end of May: more than $6 billion
The article views this data as a direct signal: the market is not continuously injecting new funds into crypto assets; in fact, some funds are withdrawing. For risky assets that rely on liquidity, this typically means increased short-term pressure.
The timing of the Japan-US meeting overlapped.
The article argues that the proximity of the Bank of Japan's meeting to the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is of greater interest. While the market has not bet on a rate hike by the Fed this time, a less dovish post-meeting statement could still amplify market volatility.
Against this backdrop, if the Bank of Japan continues to raise interest rates, it could further tighten global liquidity. The article points out that higher Japanese interest rates could push the yen stronger and weaken the low-cost funds that have previously flowed into global risk assets, which would not be beneficial for the crypto market.
Overall, this is an analytical article that leans towards expressing opinions. Its core judgment is that, against the backdrop of stablecoin capital outflows and the upcoming central bank meetings of Japan and the United States, the crypto market is facing a more sensitive liquidity test.
