Goldman Sachs: After selling $240 billion in stocks over the past month, systematic funds are expected to shift back to buying.
Wall Street CN
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Goldman Sachs said in a report to clients on Monday that so-called "quick money" funds—including commodity trading advisors (CTAs) and volatility-targeting strategies—sold off about $240 billion in global equities during the market downturn over the past month. However, this sell-off appears to be waning: traders expect the group to turn into a net buyer of about $55 billion in the coming month, with about $20 billion flowing into US stocks.
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Author:Wall Street CN

Goldman Sachs' trading division says that after cutting equity exposure to multi-year lows during the recent market sell-off, systematic investors are preparing to turn back to buying stocks.

Goldman Sachs said in a report to clients on Monday that so-called "quick money" funds—including commodity trading advisors (CTAs) and volatility-targeting strategies—sold off about $240 billion in global stocks during the market downturn over the past month. However, the sell-off appears to be waning: traders expect the group to become a net buyer of about $55 billion in the coming month, with about $20 billion flowing into US stocks.

Goldman Sachs expects this shift to be gradual, with only about $5 billion in buying expected in the coming week, so the short-term impact may be limited.

Goldman Sachs Managing Director Lee Coppersmith wrote: "This mechanical buying is improving, but it's more of a tailwind factor in the middle of the month than an immediate support."

This shift may indicate that the current sell-off in the US stock market is nearing its turning point. Previously, investor sentiment was pressured by soaring oil prices triggered by the Iran conflict, with the S&P 500 falling approximately 9% from its historical high. Although the US stock market has recently shown initial signs of a rebound, the future of the conflict remains highly uncertain.

The strength of the short-term rebound will determine the aggressiveness of these funds' additional purchases. Goldman Sachs' model shows that if the S&P 500 rises by about 8% in the next month, the global buying power of systemic funds could expand to $220 billion, with more than half of it flowing into the US market; conversely, if it falls by about 10%, it could trigger an additional $110 billion in selling.

Key technical levels may guide market direction. Goldman Sachs' Paul Leyzerovich points out that the S&P 500's 6720-6740 range is a key "re-entry zone," where short- and medium-term trend signals will turn positive, potentially accelerating inflows of trend-following strategies. The index is currently around 6600 points.

 
 
 
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