Author：TechFlow
Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
US Stocks: Behind Four Consecutive Days of Gains Lies an Extremely Dangerous Countdown
On Monday, Wall Street reopened after a three-day holiday, with both a massive non-farm payroll report and a presidential ultimatum on its books.
First, the good news. The March non-farm payroll data, released on Friday while the US stock market was closed, was phenomenal, with 178,000 new jobs added, three times Wall Street's expectations (60,000). The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. The core driver of the job recovery was the healthcare industry (+76,000), with 31,000 nurses returning to work after the Kaiser Permanente strike ended in February, directly boosting the number. Construction added 26,000, transportation and warehousing added 21,000, and manufacturing added 15,000. The federal government continued to lay off workers (-18,000), and the financial industry also suffered losses (-15,000).
Even more disheartening is the revised data: February's non-farm payrolls were revised sharply down from -92,000 to -133,000. This means the February job market collapse was far more severe than we initially thought. The average monthly job growth in the first quarter was only 68,000; two years ago, this figure would have been enough to trigger recession warnings. But the rules of the game have changed by 2026. The latest research from the Dallas Fed shows that due to a sharp decline in immigration and a drop in labor force participation, the "break-even employment" needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate is nearing zero. In other words, 68,000 may not be a sign of weakness, but rather a "new normal."
The market gravitated towards optimism. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 165 points (+0.36%) to close at 46,669.88, the S&P 500 gained 0.44% to 6,611.83, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.54% to 21,996.34. The S&P 500 recorded its fourth consecutive day of gains, its longest winning streak since January.
Now for the bad news. The ISM services data presents a terrifying combination: the index itself fell to 54 (still above the expansion line), but the price sub-index surged to 70.7, a new high since October 2022; the employment sub-index plummeted to 45.2, a new low since December 2023. In plain terms: businesses are raising prices, but laying off workers. This is a textbook sign of stagflation.
The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to around 4.35% after the non-farm payrolls data release. The message to the bond market is clear: forget about rate cuts. Morgan Stanley's Caldwell bluntly stated, "This data gives the Fed more confidence to hold rates steady." The market has even begun pricing in a slim chance of a rate hike this year.
At the individual stock level, large-cap tech stocks provided the main support. Alphabet and Amazon each rose over 1%, while Micron Technology rose 3.2%. Boeing led the Dow Jones with a 1.92% gain. However, Tesla continued to be under pressure, falling 2.2%. JPMorgan's Brinkman maintained his assessment of "significant undervaluation," giving a target price of $145, implying a 60% downside from the current price. Brinkman pointed out an absurd fact: Tesla's current stock price is 50% higher than when deliveries peaked in June 2022, but its actual first-quarter deliveries were more than 1 million vehicles less than analysts' expectations at that time.
The Dow Jones Transportation Index plunged 9% over the past three trading days, marking its biggest three-day drop since the "Liberation Day" sell-off last April. United Airlines fell more than 6%, Uber dropped 3.5%, and XPO declined 3.5%, these oil-price-sensitive stocks signaling that the growth panic is far from over.
What truly put everyone on the edge of their seats was Trump's reiteration at a Monday press conference that the US would destroy Iranian power plants and bridges if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. on Tuesday. "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, combined. Unprecedented!" he wrote on Truth Social.
Meanwhile, multiple diplomatic channels are racing against time. Axios reports that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire agreement. Reuters also reports that Iran and the US have received a peace proposal that includes an "immediate ceasefire and reopening of the Straits." However, at press time, none of the parties have formally accepted it.
Oil Prices: A Night of Horror at $119
On Sunday evening, the moment the crude oil futures market reopened, both WTI and Brent crude surged to $119—the highest price since the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. More unusually, the two benchmark oil prices reached parity at that moment. Normally, WTI trades at a discount of $3 to $7 to Brent; this "parity" indicates that the global crude oil pricing system is being distorted under extreme pressure.
Subsequently, rumors of a ceasefire depressed oil prices. By the close of US trading on Monday, WTI had fallen back to around $112, but was still significantly higher than the closing price of $111.54 on Thursday.
The market is now facing a classic binary game: if some agreement (even a vague one) is reached before 8 a.m. on Tuesday, oil prices could plummet by $20-30 within 48 hours; if Trump actually orders the bombing of Iranian infrastructure, oil prices could surge to $130 or even $150.
Analysts are warning of an overlooked risk: even if the war ends tomorrow, the global refining system has already suffered structural damage from six weeks of supply shocks. Restoring normal transportation and refining capacity will take months, not days. "Higher for longer" is no longer just a slogan.
Gold: The Forgotten King of Safe Havens
Gold prices traded in a narrow range of $4,660-$4,680 per ounce on Monday.
This is an intriguing position. In the crucial 24 hours leading up to the potential escalation or resolution of the war, gold neither surged (betting on escalation) nor plummeted (betting on peace). It was waiting.
Since hitting a record high of $5,595 in January, gold has corrected by nearly 17%. However, structurally, the $4,600-$4,700 range is forming a bottom. State Street's monthly gold monitoring report gives a baseline scenario of $4,750-$5,500 (50% probability) and a bullish scenario of $5,500-$6,250 (35% probability). $4,400-$4,600 is considered "very strong support."
A signal that most people are ignoring: the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to its lowest level since 1994 (approximately 40%), while gold's share in reserves has risen to its highest level since 1991 (approximately 30%). Central banks are voting with their feet.
Cryptocurrency: Ceasefire hopes ignite a rebound, but fear remains at rock bottom.
On Monday, the crypto market saw its strongest rebound in weeks.
According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin rose approximately 3.5% to around $69,700, having briefly broken through the $69,200 mark during the session. Ethereum rose 4.8% to $2,149. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization rebounded to $2.45 trillion.
The immediate catalyst for the rebound was the ceasefire rumors. The proposed 45-day ceasefire plus reopening of the strait offered a glimmer of hope for risk assets. However, on-chain data shows that this rebound was more about short covering than new long entry: open interest decreased by 8% during the rebound, funding rates remained negative (-0.003%), and the annualized premium for perpetual contracts compressed to 0.12%, the lowest since March 2024. Trading volume was 18% lower than the 30-day average.
Simply put: prices went up, but conviction didn't.
A noteworthy move: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed that it purchased approximately $330 million worth of Bitcoin between April 1st and 5th, further solidifying its position as the world's largest corporate BTC holder. Strategy's stock price rose 4.7% on Monday, while Bitcoin rose 3.7%. The company now holds approximately $58 billion worth of Bitcoin, but BTC has fallen by about 20% this year.
The Fear & Greed Index rose slightly to 13 from 8 last week—still in the "extreme fear" zone, and has remained below 25 for the seventh consecutive week. Historical data still offers some reassurance: since 2018, every time the index has fallen below 15, Bitcoin has seen a median increase of 38.4% in the 90 days following the drop. But this is contingent on—this bottom not being a false one.
Bitcoin faces technical resistance at $71,500, a level it has repeatedly failed to break through. This barrier could be breached if a ceasefire is implemented and oil prices plummet. If Tuesday brings bombs instead of peace, the $65,000 support level will be tested again.
Today's summary: Life or death determined in 48 hours.
On April 7th, the Iraq War entered its final countdown to its sixth week, with all assets tied up at the same gambling table:
US stocks:The S&P 500 rose for the fourth consecutive day, gaining 0.44% to 6,611.83 points. Non-farm payrolls of 178,000 significantly exceeded expectations, but the surge in ISM services prices coupled with a sharp drop in employment strongly suggests stagflation.
Oil prices:WTI crude oil prices briefly touched $119 in Sunday night trading before falling back to $112. Trump's "Power Plant Day" ultimatum and ceasefire rumors coexisted.
gold:Gold prices are awaiting a verdict in the $4,660-$4,680 range, with continued central bank buying providing a structural bottom.
Cryptocurrency:Bitcoin rebounded to $69,700, with hopes of a ceasefire driving short covering. Strategy bought another $330 million worth of BTC. The fear index remained at 13, still chilly.
The market is now only concerned with one question: Will there be a ceasefire agreement or a bombing order before 8 p.m. on Tuesday?
If a 45-day ceasefire agreement is reached, oil prices could fall back to the $80-90 range within days, the stock market would see a sharp rebound, and Bitcoin could potentially hit $75,000. If Trump delivers on his "Power Plant Day" threat, oil prices will head towards $130, the S&P 500 could retest its year-to-date lows, and the crypto market would once again be gripped by panic.
We will know the answer in 48 hours.
