In March 2026, geopolitical risks continued to heat up, triggering a massive transaction volume of US$23.7 billion in the blockchain prediction market. At the same time, it increased by 2838% compared with the same period last year, and the number of independent active wallets exceeded 840,000. When macro events such as the US-Iran conflict and the presidential election become the objects of global user bets, when ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, invested US$2 billion in Polymarket, and when Google Finance began to embed prediction market odds in real time: is it a revolutionary tool to improve information transparency, or is it a new digital casino wandering on the edge of regulation?
Table: List of core data and disputes in the blockchain prediction market "Core Weapon VS New Casino"
| Dimensions | Information tool | new casino |
|---|---|---|
| core data | 23.7 billion monthly transaction volume, aggregating global information | 191 million monthly transactions, with a median of just $10 |
| participants | Hedge funds, information traders | More than 57% of retail investors have transaction volume less than $100 |
| behavior pattern | Position management based on information analysis | High-frequency, small-amount, speculative behavior of chasing the rise and killing the fall |
| Regulatory status | Federal CFTC recognizes its legality (e.g. no-action letter) | Many states (Michigan, Washington, etc.) regard it as illegal gambling and prosecute it |
| core controversy | It’s financial innovation and information freedom | Suspected of insider trading, manipulation and illegal gambling |
Geopolitics spawns prediction market superdata
According to the latest report from blockchain intelligence company TRM Labs, geopolitical and US political contracts have become the main force dominating trading activity, detonating prediction markets.$23.7 billion in transactions,Completely replacing the previously mainstream encryption native theme. In February 2026, the single market "Will the United States attack Iran before February 28?" alone attracted a trading volume of US$73 million, becoming the largest geopolitical contract in the history of Polymarket. What is even more shocking is that when the traditional financial market was "blind" due to weekend closures, the prediction market completed the first round of pricing of conflict risks. For example, regarding the contract "Khamenei will step down before February 28", the trading volume surged 1,275 times in 24 hours, accurately capturing the rapid changes in the situation in the Middle East.
Information Weapon: Sharper Group Wisdom
In our view, the reason why geopolitics detonated 23.7 billion daily transactions in the prediction market is that it aggregates scattered information into real-time, quantified probabilities through monetary incentives. It has several significant advantages over traditional polling or expert analysis:
Pricing information rather than reflecting opinions: Prices translate directly into probabilities. For example, regarding the geopolitical event "whether the United States will attack Iran", the market gives a dynamically changing probability value, rather than a simple "yes" or "no". This has more reference value than the qualitative reporting of traditional news.
prediction marketPolymarket data at a glance
Fast price discovery: A study by the New York Federal Reserve noted that in decentralized financial markets, about 36% of price discovery occurs before the news becomes “common knowledge.” This means that experienced traders are processing the public but complex on-chain data to reflect the information in the price in advance.
Covering the blind spots of traditional predictions: From the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions to the results of the Oscars, prediction markets provide real-time odds references for countless events, and have begun to be embedded in mainstream platforms such as Google Finance.
Therefore, while everyone is still debating whether the blockchain prediction market is an information tool or a new type of casino, we have actually seen that it is rapidly penetrating into the mainstream as an information aggregation tool.
The New Casino: Runaway Speculation and Regulation
Let’s look at the other side. The huge financial temptation and lack of supervision in the blockchain prediction market have also exposed its casino attributes.
Let’s talk about scale first. The number of transactions in March reached 191 million, but the median bet was only US$10 to US$30. This shows that a large number of retail investors are not carefully analyzing the information, but placing bets as frequently as buying lottery tickets. Let’s calculate it. The monthly transaction volume of 23.7 billion US dollars has exceeded the gambling industry in most countries. This size cannot be supported by rational decision-making alone.
Kalshi Prediction MarketTransactions by Category
Looking at insider trading, the transparency of blockchain actually exposes suspicious behavior. For example, in February’s betting on the US-Iran conflict, an analysis found that four new wallets shared the same source of funds, and US$40,000 was rolled into US$872,000 in a short period of time. When we look at these traces of collaboration, it’s hard not to suspect that there’s something wrong behind it.
Let’s look at the regulatory stranglehold, which is currently the biggest point of controversy. Kalshi and Polymarket platform parties believe that they are regulated by the CFTC and are serious financial derivatives exchanges. However, states such as Michigan, Washington, and Nevada did not recognize it and directly characterized it as illegal online gambling, leading to lawsuits one after another. The Washington State Attorney General put it most bluntly - Kalshi is a "bookmaker with a fancy name." We listened, and the words were rough but not rough.
Conclusion: Essence is a tool, good and evil depend on rules
In the face of geopolitics detonating 23.7 billion daily transactions, is the blockchain prediction market an information tool or a new type of casino? Our point of view is: the blockchain prediction market is more like a knife. When it is used to aggregate information, hedge risks, and provide reference for decision-making, it is a sharp weapon. When it is used for high-frequency speculation by retail investors who lack information, is manipulated by insiders, and becomes a gambling tool in a regulatory vacuum, it is a casino.
It can be said that it can not only expose the loopholes of insider trading in information asymmetry, but also demonstrate more accurate pricing capabilities than traditional polls in macro events. Whether it will become an information tool for compliance or slide into an out-of-control digital casino, we will wait and see in the future.
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