Macro downward channel and four-hour bullish perspective: Will Bitcoin continue to fall?

To maintain absolute sanity in this short-term rally that has a visual deception effect and is extremely easy to induce retail investors to chase the price impulsively, we must first completely peel off the minute-level fluctuation noise and face the true background of the underlying macro cycle of the asset. The current price of $67,113 is by no means a signal for the restart of the bull market. It is a "false breakthrough on the right side" forcibly created by the main force in the downward channel in order to obtain liquidity.

Opening the latest Coinglass data dashboard, the current quotation of BTC is fixed at $67,113. Judging from historical performance, this rebound pales in comparison to the macro trend: it recorded a decline of -1.08% in the past seven days, while the yields in the past 90 days and 180 days were mired in -22.98% and -41.16% respectively. This means that in the medium and long-term dimension, short sellers still firmly control the macroeconomic pressure, and any current pull-up is just repairing extremely oversold technical indicators.

Although the current 4-hour trend has recorded a retracement of 1.67%, the price showed obvious momentum exhaustion when it hit the resistance level of $67,500. This technical resonance of extremely weak macro and forced short-term repair has brought the entire network's discussion on whether Bitcoin will continue to fall to its peak. The objective conclusion is extremely cold: against the background that the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East is still simmering and expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike have not dissipated, simple contract increases that lack the support of spot buying are essentially "bully traps" that serve the main shipments.

128 million two-way liquidation engine reveals whether Bitcoin will continue to fall

One of the core indicators for assessing whether the crypto market is sustainable is the leverage clearing efficiency and the distribution of liquidation weights in the derivatives market. Today's BTC liquidation data of up to $128 million has released an extremely dangerous "bull stampede warning" signal.

In the past 24 hours, the monkey market trend of BTC first falling and then rising caused heavy losses to the entire network. Data shows that the total 24-hour liquidation of contracts across the entire network was US$128 million, of which US$90 million was liquidated for long orders and US$38.04 million was liquidated for short orders. The proportion of longs being slaughtered is still more than twice that of shorts.

What is even more spine-chilling is the microscopic slices taken in the last hour. In just 60 minutes, out of a total liquidation of US$456,300, short positions were liquidated as high as US$416,600, while long orders were only US$39,600. This means that the core motivation of the main force's rise is not to break through upwards, but to force short positions to be closed and turned into pay orders through directional blasting of short leverage, thereby artificially pushing up prices and inducing retail investors to enter the market without spending the main force's spot funds. This false prosperity created by using short fuel is the core key to answering the question of whether Bitcoin will continue to fall: when the short fuel is exhausted, the market will completely lose its upward physical thrust, and retail investors will be greeted by a deeper decline.

Retail investors’ 2.19 times crazy takeover and whale’s 0.94 defense answer: Will Bitcoin continue to fall?

If the liquidation data is the scythe for the main force to wash the market, then the serious deviation of the long-short ratio data directly exposes the completely different strategic trump cards of the long and short sides in the current market when facing the so-called "reversal". This is the most valuable objective radar to determine when this wave of repair market will end.

The data panel extremely nakedly demonstrates the fatal path dependence and paranoia of retail investors in the face of oversold rebounds. Currently, on the Binance platform, the long-short ratio of ordinary retail accounts has soared to an extremely crowded state of 2.199, and the long-short ratio of retail investors on the OKX platform has also reached 2.02. Even the long-short ratio of Binance’s large investors, which represents high-net-worth large-capital retail investors, is as high as 2.198.

What do these three extremely large and crowded sets of bull data mean? This means that at the shaky threshold of $67,000, the vast majority of retail investors and large investors on the entire network have completely lost their minds. They regard the main force's killing of shorts and luring bulls as the return of the bull market, and are buying with twice the number of short sellers with crazy leverage. However, the most nerve-wracking truth is: Binance’s top traders, who control market pricing, have seen their long-short position ratio fall to an absolute defensive level of 0.9473. This extreme deviation of retail investors’ fanaticism and the cold-blooded retreat of giant whales on defense answers the question of whether Bitcoin will continue to fall in an extremely domineering manner: It will definitely fall! As long as retail investors still maintain a crowded long position of 2.19 times and the whales are in a net short position, it is absolutely impossible for the main force to pull up and rescue these bargain hunters. The next move on the market is most likely to use another cliff-like crash to completely wipe out the leverage of these retail investors.

46 billion daily current deviation and practical geek risk control and defense guide

Combining the above-mentioned underlying game data and liquidity performance, we see a market that is completely dominated by derivatives and is extremely false and prosperous. The 24-hour spot trading volume of BTC was only US$3.76 billion, while the contract trading volume was a stifling US$46.05 billion. The futures transaction ratio of more than 12 times provides irrefutable evidence that the current price of US$67,113 is completely a distorted price caused by the short-selling operation of the main force in the contract market and the blind long-selling of retail investors. The open interest of contracts across the entire network is still as high as 48.63 billion US dollars, like a barrier lake hanging overhead.

Faced with this situation where retail investors are extremely crowded and bullish, whales have a net short defense of 0.94, futures and current prices are seriously diverging, and the mid- and long-term trends are completely broken. Regarding the core pain point, will Bitcoin continue to fall? I suggest that all geek traders immediately switch to the highest level of defensive mode:

The first step is to absolutely and unconditionally prohibit any form of high-leverage multi-order gaming at the current position. In a normal environment where the long-short ratio of retail investors is as high as 2.19, your long orders are the best nuclear fuel for the main force to launch the next wave of waterfalls.

The second step is to give up all "reversal" illusions. As long as the long-short position ratio of Binance’s top traders does not return to above 1.15, any increase should be regarded as the last opportunity to adjust positions and leave the market.

The third step is to establish the right-side sniping standard using the current divergence and the depth of the market wash. Pay close attention to the long-short ratio data of accounts on major platforms: when Binance’s retail long-short ratio will be completely tortured by the subsequent waterfall to the point of desperate liquidation and falling back to the 1.0 balance line, when will it be the best time for us geek funds to reopen the quantitative bottom-buying grid. Only by respecting the macro and data can you survive in this meat grinder.