Macro cycle decline and four-hour diving perspective. Can sol be short now?

To maintain absolute sanity in this short-term sharp decline that has a visual intimidation effect and is extremely easy to induce panic selling among retail investors, we must first completely peel off the four-hour level noise and face the true background of the underlying macro cycle of the asset. For the current SOL, $85.64 is not the end of the long-term decline, but an extremely fragile support node in the mid-line downward channel.

Opening the latest Coinglass data dashboard, SOL's current quotation is fixed at $85.64, down $1.6676 during the day. Judging from historical performance, this wave of decline is just the tip of the iceberg: in the past 90 days, SOL has recorded a return rate of -31.93%, and the cumulative decline in the past 180 days has been a stifling -59.93%. This means that in the long-term dimension, SOL has completely fallen into a bottomless right-side downward cycle.

The current 4-hour trend recorded a retracement of -1.68%. The price quickly turned downward after hitting a high of $87.44, which marked the complete failure of the short-term bull counterattack. This technical resonance of extreme macro weakness and failure of short-term impact has brought the entire network's discussion on whether sol can be short now to its peak. The objective conclusion is extremely cold: the long-term trend is still dominated by short-term bulls, the short-term rebound is just a bullish relay of the decline, and the current sharp decline is an inevitable correction of technical overload.

9.07 million bulls were brutally strangled in a directional manner. The liquidation engine reveals the secrets of sol. Can Sol be opened now?

One of the core indicators for assessing the true destructive power of the crypto market downturn and the main harvesting direction is the extreme difference between the leverage clearing ratio in the derivatives market and the time for long and short massacres. Today's SOL liquidation data of more than 10 million US dollars has released a "directional long hunting" signal that needs to arouse the vigilance of all professional traders.

In the past 24 hours, SOL has emerged from a desperate plunge, which was accompanied by a series of tragic liquidations of long positions in the derivatives market. Data shows that the total liquidation of 24-hour contracts across the entire network was US$10.24 million, of which long positions were liquidated at US$9.07 million. If you cut your sights to the last 12 hours, this sense of strangulation will be even more intense: of the total liquidation of US$2.88 million, long orders accounted for US$1.97 million.

This continuous unilateral long killing from 24 hours to 4 hours shows that the main force has begun to use downward pins to accurately detonate retail investors who are trying to buy bottoms on the left side of the 86-87 US dollar range during the decline. The liquidated long positions were technically automatically converted into market sell orders, further accelerating the price fall. This cold-blooded nature of stepping on the corpses of bulls to search for liquidity directly supports the quantitative rationality of sol. Can you go short now? The killing of bulls is not over because the retail investors on the bus are still hanging on.

Retail investors are overcrowded in 2.51 and top traders are retreating. Can sol open short now?

If the liquidation data is a butcher knife wielded by the main force, then the serious deviation of the long-short ratio data directly exposes the completely different strategic trump cards of the long and short sides in the current market when facing the risk of position breaking. This is also the only objective radar on the entire Internet that can see through the real harvesting intentions of bookmakers.

The data panel extremely nakedly demonstrates the serious path dependence and fatal paranoia of retail investors in the face of a sharp decline. Currently, on the Binance platform, the long-short ratio of ordinary retail accounts has soared to an extremely crowded state of 2.5199 in an extremely abnormal manner, and the long-short ratio of retail investors on the OKX platform has also reached 2.19. Even the long-short ratio of Binance’s large investors, which represents high-net-worth retail investors, is as high as 2.7037.

What do these three extremely large sets of data mean? This means that at the edge of the abyss of $85, the vast majority of retail investors across the entire network are bucking the trend and frantically adding to long positions. The number of bullish people is more than 2.5 times the number of bearish ones! This extremely unbalanced bull carriage is the perfect hunting target for the main funds. However, the most irritating thing is that the long-short position ratio (Positions) of the top traders who have absolute pricing power in the market is only 1.3305, and it shows an obvious continuous shrinking trend. This extreme deviation of retail investors going long and large investors retreating on defense answers the question of can sol go short now in an extremely domineering manner: we must be vigilant! When the long positions of retail investors become the most crowded chips on the market, the main player's only choice is to continue to smash the market downward until the 2.51 times long leverage is completely wiped out.

The 970 million-day contract futures deviate from the actual deduction. Can sol be shorted now?

Combining the above-mentioned underlying gaming data and liquidity performance, we see a murderous pressure cooker ecosystem that is completely dominated by derivatives. SOL's 24-hour spot trading volume was only US$469 million, while its contract trading volume was as high as a stifling US$973 million. The futures transaction ratio of more than twice shows that the current price fluctuations are completely affected by the liquidation of funds in the contract market. The open interest of the entire network contract is still as high as 480 million US dollars, which means that there is still a large amount of open leverage on the market ready to be stepped on at any time.

Faced with this situation in which retail investors are extremely crowded and bullish, long-selling data has hit a new stage high, futures and current prices have seriously diverged, and the long-term trend has completely broken. In view of the core pain point, can sol be short now? It is recommended that professional investors adopt the following extremely strict geek defense strategies:

The first step is to absolutely prohibit any left-side bargain hunting at the current position. The long-short ratio of 2.5199 for retail investors is the sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of all bargain hunters. As long as this value does not fall below 1.5 or even lower, the main force will have no motivation to stop smashing the market.