Bitcoin continued its downward trend this week, with prices falling to their lowest level since early April. One of the immediate reasons driving this downward pressure was the disclosure by crypto treasury firm Strategy that it had sold a small portion of its Bitcoin holdings.

Traders on Kalshi believe Bitcoin has further downside potential in the current pullback. The market gives nearly an 80% probability that it will fall below $60,000 in 2026.

Traders' expectations weakened

Traders also believe there is a 52% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 this year. This means that bets on further price declines are heating up in the market.

Kalshi's expectations have also cooled significantly. Traders believe there is only a 27% chance that Bitcoin will climb back above $100,000 in 2026, down from nearly 50% in early May.

The price has fallen significantly from its high.

According to data cited by CNBC, Bitcoin has fallen more than 45% from its high of over $120,000 last October. As of Tuesday, the price was around $66,500, a weekly drop of nearly 10%.

Polymarket traders believe there is only a 12% chance that Bitcoin will reach a new high in 2026. This reflects a cautious market outlook.