Foreign media commentators argue that attributing the June 2026 Bitcoin crash entirely to expectations of a SpaceX IPO is insufficient. While AI stocks and large IPOs do attract risk-averse capital, such shifts are more akin to medium- to long-term diversions and cannot adequately explain a sharp drop within a few days.
The simultaneous occurrence of a strong stock market and a decline in cryptocurrencies
Those who support the "fund rotation" theory argue that at the time, US stocks were still near their highs, while the cryptocurrency market capitalization evaporated by about $250 billion during the same period. This divergence suggests that some speculative funds were leaving crypto assets and turning to AI concept stocks and IPO opportunities.
The report noted that market expectations for SpaceX's potential IPO valuation once reached as high as $1.8 trillion, reinforced by a number of other large IPO plans. Some crypto platforms have also seen synthetic derivatives trading related to pre-IPO stocks and tokenized stocks.
The sharp drop is more like a short-term shock combined with liquidation.
However, the article argues that attributing this decline directly to the hype surrounding SpaceX's IPO is not a logical timeline. IPO expectations typically build gradually, leading to weeks or months of relative weakness rather than a rapid drop within 72 hours.
In contrast, the market faced several more immediate negative factors that week, including stronger-than-expected US jobs data, escalating geopolitical tensions, Strategy& reportedly selling Bitcoin for the first time in nearly four years, and continued outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. These factors, combined with highly leveraged positions, made it easier to trigger a chain reaction of selling.
- Over $1.7 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours.
- Bitcoin briefly fell below $62,000.
- The cryptocurrency market capitalization has shrunk by approximately $250 billion.
SpaceX is more like a long-term competitor.
The article ultimately concludes that the SpaceX and AI stock boom is more accurately described as a long-term competition facing the crypto market. As AI, semiconductors, and large private companies continue to attract attention, crypto assets are losing appeal to highly resilient risk-seeking capital.
In other words, SpaceX may not have been the immediate trigger for this crash, but it represents a longer-term shift: when investors have more options with higher volatility and higher expected returns, marginal funds flowing into the crypto market may decrease. This can explain some of the relative weakness in certain phases, but it's insufficient to explain a single, sudden crash.
