Bitcoin consolidated around $64,000 on Thursday, experiencing a slight decline over the past 24 hours, but still maintaining an upward trend on the weekly chart. This followed the Federal Reserve's decision, under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, to keep interest rates unchanged while raising its year-end rate forecast, which fueled market bets on a July rate hike and weakened sentiment towards risk assets.
Fed's statement suppresses rebound
This round of decline stemmed more from changes in policy rhetoric than from interest rate decisions themselves. The market had initially rebounded briefly due to easing tensions between the US and Iran, with Bitcoin rising to around $67,000, but the Fed's hawkish stance quickly weakened this rally.
Analysts point out that Bitcoin has benefited from expectations of loose monetary policy in recent years. Now, the market is reassessing the pace of future interest rate cuts, putting pressure on crypto assets. Ethereum and Solana also declined on the same day, indicating an overall decrease in risk appetite.
The market is still eyeing the $60,000 mark.
Despite short-term pressure, some institutions believe Bitcoin is forming a temporary bottom. Hashdex predicts that, in the absence of new major catalysts, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate between $60,000 and $70,000 in the coming weeks.
- Bitcoin hit a low of around $62,500 last week.
- The market is focused on whether the $60,000 level will remain effective.
- Panic has subsided from its extreme levels.
Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 17%. However, some analysts believe that after the rapid correction, selling pressure has eased, and the market is beginning to look for a clearer support level.
ETF outflows slowdown and policy expectations attract attention
In terms of funding, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows of nearly $4.6 billion since early May, but the pace of outflows has slowed, which is seen as a sign of easing selling pressure. Some research institutions also noted that on-chain holdings are concentrated around $60,000, indicating some support in this price range.
In addition, the market is also watching the progress of the US crypto regulatory bill, the CLARITY Act. Analysts believe that clearer signals in the regulatory environment, or continued easing of tensions in the Middle East, could be triggers for Bitcoin to break out of its current range.
In the short term, macroeconomic variables remain the dominant factor. According to CME FedWatch, traders have now priced in about a 30% probability of a July rate hike, significantly higher than a week ago. Until inflationary pressures ease significantly, Bitcoin's next move will continue to be driven by interest rate expectations.
