Foreign media reports that Cardano's token ADA is currently trading near the lower end of its recent range, with both spot and derivatives markets showing cautious trading sentiment. The article argues that while the price is near oversold territory, the overall downward trend has not yet reversed, and it is approaching a directional decision point in the short term.
As of press time, ADA was trading at $0.1607, down 3.2% in the last 24 hours. Looking at a longer timeframe, it has fallen 6.1% over the past 7 days, 35.6% over the past month, and a cumulative drop of 73.2% over the past year. However, the 24-hour trading volume was still $368.8 million, indicating that market activity has not cooled significantly.
Derivatives positions continued to decline
The article notes that data from the derivatives market remains bearish. The current long-short ratio is approximately 0.96, indicating that short positions slightly outnumber long positions. Meanwhile, open interest in futures contracts is approximately $348 million, continuing its decline since mid-May.
Such changes typically indicate that traders are actively reducing their risk exposure rather than establishing large directional positions at current price levels. In other words, the market has not formed a clear consensus on a rebound.
Increased on-chain loss realization
On-chain metrics also reflect the pressure. The article points out that the Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) metric has declined significantly, indicating that more holders are selling at a loss rather than taking profits recently.
This type of situation is common at the end of a phase of selling, where some holders facing pressure choose to exit the market. If selling pressure continues to weaken, prices may enter a short-term consolidation phase; however, if support is breached, the downward trend may continue.
$0.157 becomes a short-term watershed.
From a technical perspective, the ADA remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, indicating a continued weak medium- to long-term trend. The daily RSI is around 31, suggesting that bears still dominate, but the market is gradually approaching oversold territory.
The article argues that $0.157 is the most crucial short-term support level. If buying pressure picks up around this level, the price could rebound to around $0.172. If this level is breached, the downside target could shift to $0.148, and further down to $0.13.
Another short-term variable is the Leios scaling upgrade testnet, expected to launch around June 23. The article argues that this development could bring renewed attention to the Cardano ecosystem, but the market will still face downward pressure until buying pressure regains footing at key resistance levels.
