Foreign media reports indicate that Bitcoin on-chain activity has recently rebounded, but funding has not improved accordingly. The article argues that this divergence suggests network activity is recovering, but for a more sustained price rebound, the market still needs more definite incremental funding.
On-chain metrics rebound
In 2024, Bitcoin network activity and price movements were largely synchronized; as BTC approached the $100,000 mark, on-chain activity also strengthened. However, in 2025, the two began to diverge, with network activity experiencing a significant decline.
However, this trend has recently changed. The relevant index has risen from around 3200 to around 3800, while Bitcoin price momentum has weakened. Based on this, the article argues that a recovery in on-chain activity may precede a major price correction.
Fund demand remains in negative territory
In contrast to the improved on-chain activity, demand for funds remains weak. CryptoQuant data shows that the fund market premium turned negative when Bitcoin fell back to around $63,100, and subsequently dropped to around -6 during the recent decline.
Although the indicator subsequently rebounded to approximately -0.6, it has not yet returned to positive territory. Meanwhile, the 30-day EMA continues its downward trend. The article argues that this means the improvement in internet adoption has not yet translated into sufficiently strong capital inflows, and the foundation for a price rebound remains fragile.
- On-chain activity index: rose from approximately 3200 to approximately 3800
- Fund market premium: once fell to approximately -6
- Latest premium level: rebounded to approximately -0.6
The pace of BTC holdings by addresses with 100 to 1000 BTC has slowed.
The article also mentioned that addresses holding 100 to 1000 BTC are still increasing their holdings, and the overall holding level of these addresses is higher than a year ago, indicating that there has not been a full-scale retreat in the market.
More concerning is the continued slowdown in the pace of share purchases. Since the beginning of this year, the net increase in holdings by this group has declined significantly. The article argues that this reflects a weakening of confidence among some investors.
Overall, improvements on the blockchain have provided some support to the market, but demand from funds has not yet recovered, and the pace of accumulation by medium-sized holding addresses is also cooling down. Foreign media believe that Bitcoin's recovery lacks sufficient support until a stronger inflow of funds occurs.
