Following a brief easing of geopolitical tensions, the cryptocurrency market experienced a recovery. Foreign media reports indicate that the US and Iran reportedly reached an agreement on a 60-day ceasefire framework, leading to a rebound in market risk appetite and increasing the total market capitalization of crypto assets by approximately $39 billion.
As of press time, the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization remained stable at around $2.19 trillion. Bitcoin rebounded above $64,000, and Ethereum rose to approximately $1,723. However, trading volume did not increase proportionally, with daily trading volume remaining in the $52 billion to $55 billion range, below the levels typically seen during strong rebounds.
Derivatives positions rebound
As prices rebounded, traders began to rebuild derivatives positions. Open interest reached approximately $108 billion in the past 24 hours, indicating that the market still has some bets on further upside.
Structurally, however, sentiment is not aggressive. Funding rates are generally in the neutral to slightly positive range, indicating that the premium paid by long positions is limited. The long-short ratio is also basically balanced, with longs accounting for 50.35% and shorts accounting for 49.65%.
The liquidation scale has decreased significantly compared to the previous volatile phase, falling to approximately $146 million. This indicates that previously high-leverage positions have been cleared out, and market risk appetite has improved.
Spot buying remains weak.
The article argues that the more pressing concern now is whether spot demand has truly returned. Although derivatives data has improved somewhat, spot trading volume remains low and has not yet reached the level typically required to support a trend reversal.
Meanwhile, the active buy-sell spread on most exchanges remains near neutral or slightly negative, indicating that buyers have not yet established a clear dominant position. The Coinbase premium index also remains below zero, reflecting weak demand in the US market.
This means that the current market is more like derivatives traders adding to their positions than a full-scale return of funds to the spot market. If new buying does not continue to follow, price fluctuations may still be primarily driven by leveraged funds.
Whether the rebound can continue depends on new funds.
The article argues that the foundation for this recovery is still not solid. While easing geopolitical risks have indeed eased market pressure and driven a short-term rebound in Bitcoin and Ethereum, the rally may be short-lived without stronger spot demand and new capital inflows.
In other words, market sentiment has improved and positions are recovering, but the key to determining the subsequent trend is whether there will be clearer buying support in the spot market.
