Samsung Electronics expects its operating profit for the first quarter of this year to reach approximately 57.2 trillion won, an increase of more than eight times year-on-year, far exceeding analysts' expectations of 40.6 trillion won. The single-quarter profit is close to the total profit for the entire previous year. The surge in demand from AI data centers, leading to chip supply bottlenecks and driving a significant increase in DRAM prices, is the core driver of this performance surge. However, the situation in the Middle East and the decline in DRAM spot prices have raised concerns in the market about the sustainability of the price increase cycle.

China Merchants Securities believes that, based on the released data, the industrial recovery in January and February was mainly supported by equipment manufacturing, high technology, and the export chain. Entering March, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.4%, the production index rose to 51.4%, and the new orders index rose to 51.6%, indicating that after the Spring Festival disruption subsided, corporate production activities accelerated significantly, and improved orders also provided some support for production. The first-quarter growth rate is likely to be higher than the lower limit of the policy target of 4.5%, but before a stronger recovery in consumption and the real estate sector, the probability of significantly exceeding the upper limit of the target is not high; it may be recorded at around 5.0%.

Driven by demand for AI infrastructure, Microsoft and Google are in talks with SK Hynix for a three-year DRAM supply agreement. This contract breaks with industry practice by introducing a floor price guarantee and a 10% to 30% upfront deposit mechanism to ensure supply security. With DDR4 prices soaring nearly tenfold in a year, memory chips have become a strategic reserve resource, contributing to record-high first-quarter earnings forecasts for Samsung and SK Hynix.

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