Author：TechFlow
Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
US stocks: Continued rebound
Q2 started with two consecutive days of gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 224 points (+0.48%) to close at 46,565, the S&P 500 gained 0.72% to 6,575, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.16% to 21,840, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index advanced 0.64% to 2,512. The VIX fear index further declined to 24.54, having shrunk by nearly 6 points from its peak a week ago.
The underlying logic of this surge is no longer just the "ceasefire news," but rather that Trump has given a concrete timetable for the first time.
He told reporters at a White House press conference that U.S. troops would leave Iran "within two to three weeks," the key wording being his addition that it would be "regardless of whether there is an agreement." This marks the first time since the 35-day war that Washington has decoupled the withdrawal from the conditional variable of "negotiated agreement," transforming it into an independent, time-driven commitment. The market is hearing: the war is entering its final countdown, regardless of whether Tehran signs the treaty.
Meanwhile, Trump posted another message on Truth Social, claiming that "the Iranian president has called for a ceasefire," but immediately added a condition: Hormuz must be "open, free, and unobstructed," otherwise the US would not consider it. The coexistence of these two posts constituted the core tension in market sentiment that day, containing both expectations of the final outcome and anchoring conditions.
Sector rotation: the beneficiaries and losers have switched positions.
The most unusual scene yesterday occurred in the energy sector. The S&P 500 energy sector plummeted by over 4% in a single day, becoming the biggest loser of the day—the first clear signal since the war that "ceasefire expectations have shrunk energy stocks." The logical loop is: war ends → the Strait of Hormuz reopens → oil supply recovers → oil prices decline → energy company profits are under pressure. WTI crude fell 2.4% yesterday to around $99 per barrel, officially breaking below the $100 mark; Brent crude also fell to around $101.
Technology stocks took the lead in the rally. Intel was the most eye-catching stock yesterday, after announcing a $14.2 billion buyback of a major stake in its Irish Fab 34 wafer fab—a move interpreted by the industry as a signal of a "CPU resurgence" and a return to financial discipline, causing its stock price to surge. The Nasdaq as a whole maintained its strength for the second consecutive day, with the technology ETF (XLK) continuing to benefit from the "interest rate cut narrative recovery" logic fueled by rising expectations of a ceasefire.
Two surprise posts: SpaceX and OpenAI
There were also two other significant news items yesterday that were not related to war, and they deserve to be noted separately.
Bloomberg first reported that SpaceX has secretly filed for an IPO with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This is one of the most anticipated IPOs in the crypto and technology markets in years, with specific valuations and launch dates yet to be disclosed. EchoStar holds approximately 3% of SpaceX's shares, and its stock price jumped significantly after the news broke.
OpenAI announced the completion of a $122 billion funding round, raising its valuation to $852 billion, exceeding previous forecasts. This round is the largest single funding round for a technology company in history, and the funds will continue to be invested in AI infrastructure development. Meanwhile, Oracle announced layoffs of thousands of employees. These two news items, in contrast, suggest that while AI funding continues to pour in, it has entered a phase where "giants are taking more, and other companies can't get in."
Oil prices and gold
Oil prices: fell below $100, but don't rush to celebrate.
WTI crude oil closed at around $99 per barrel yesterday, while Brent crude oil closed at around $101. This marks the first time WTI has closed below the $100 mark since the outbreak of the war. On the surface, this is a significant psychological breakthrough – the market is beginning to price in the expectation that the war will end within weeks.
However, one detail worth noting is that oil prices have never truly returned to pre-war levels. Before the war broke out (late February), WTI was around $57. Even now, at $99, it's still about 74% higher than pre-war levels. Even if a ceasefire agreement is implemented within the next two weeks, the recovery of oil market supply will take time: damaged Middle Eastern infrastructure needs repair, rebuilding operator confidence takes time, and shipping routes around the Cape of Good Hope are still operating, but cancellation will take time. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned yesterday that even with a ceasefire, full normalization of the energy market "could take months."
Gold: Fading inflation expectations ease pressure on gold, but the structural rebound has only just begun.
Gold surged 2.25% yesterday to around $4,783 an ounce, marking its strongest single-day gain this month.
The logic is clear: falling oil prices → cooling inflation expectations → reduced pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates → expectations of declining real interest rates → increased attractiveness of gold as a non-interest-bearing asset. This chain is completely symmetrical to the chain that suppressed gold throughout March, only in the opposite direction.
From a price perspective, gold has rebounded by more than 15% from its mid-March correction low (around $4,100), but it is still about 15% away from its all-time high of $5,600 at the end of January. This range represents the core trading zone for gold as expectations of the war's end gradually materialize.
Cryptocurrency
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin rose moderately yesterday, fluctuating between $67,800 and $68,500, moving in sync with market sentiment but with a restrained magnitude.
Yesterday, the real protagonist in the crypto space was a warning unexpectedly related to the war narrative: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement listing 18 US tech giants, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet, as "legitimate targets" because they provided technical support for US and Israeli military operations.
The encrypted meaning of this message is that if technological infrastructure becomes a target, the potential risk of disruption to the computing power supply chain and global cloud services will increase—and the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin network finds new "meaning" within this narrative framework. This logic has not yet been fully reflected in the price, but it deserves to be considered in the long term.
Morgan Stanley quietly launched a low-fee Bitcoin ETF yesterday, with fees significantly lower than the market average. This is yet another signal that traditional Wall Street asset management giants are continuing to "get closer" to Bitcoin. During this window of opportunity as the market awaits the outcome of the battle, institutional product development has been quietly progressing.
Today's focus: Market aftershocks following Trump's speech; April 6th countdown begins.
Last night at 9 p.m., Trump delivered a national televised address from the White House.
In his evening address, Trump announced that Iranian President Pezechian had formally requested a ceasefire from the United States, marking Iran's closest diplomatic gesture to direct contact to date. The market is currently digesting the speech's content, and today's trading session will be the first window to price in its implications.
There are three key points to watch: First, whether Trump has offered a new framework of conditions; second, whether the Iranian IRGC has issued a rebuttal statement; and third, whether there has been any change in the actual passage status of the Strait of Hormuz.
Today's Data Calendar
Today (April 2nd) features a dense release of economic data: the ISM Manufacturing PMI (March) and the ADP Private Sector Employment Report (March). These two data points, combined with the non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday (March), will collectively outline the true severity of the impact of the war on the US labor market.
February's nonfarm payrolls fell by a net 92,000, one of the worst monthly figures since the pandemic began. Whether the March data can rebound is a key signal determining the Federal Reserve's policy path—and a crucial factor in determining "how much this war has cost the US economy."
April 6th deadline: the final window
Trump set April 6 as the deadline for striking Iran's energy infrastructure, which is four days away. Regardless of the content of his speech, this date will be the main focus of market volatility over the next four days.
The current situation is this: there are new public signals regarding ceasefire negotiations, but the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and the IRGC continues to project a confrontational stance. This war is at a true crossroads; neither direction is simply good or bad news. However, for the market, the cost of one direction will be far less than the other.
