News of easing geopolitical tensions has temporarily provided some breathing room for the cryptocurrency market. Multiple media outlets reported that the US and Iran are close to extending the ceasefire for another 60 days and discussing the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, pressure on oil prices eased, market risk appetite rebounded, and Bitcoin and Ethereum stabilized after a sharp drop the previous day.
As of Friday, CoinGecko data showed the total market capitalization of the crypto market remained at approximately $2.56 trillion, after falling nearly 4% in the previous trading day. Bitcoin briefly dipped to the $72,600-$73,000 range before rebounding above $73,000; Ethereum fluctuated around $2,000, having previously dipped below this level. Volatility in major tokens such as SOL, XRP, BNB, and DOGE also moderated compared to the previous day.
Liquidation pressure has significantly decreased.
The previous day's sharp drop triggered one of the largest derivatives liquidations in recent months. CoinGlass data shows that approximately $217 million was liquidated in the crypto market over the past 24 hours, significantly lower than the approximately $941 million of the previous trading day. The distribution of liquidations on both the long and short sides is also closer to equilibrium, indicating that the squeeze from the previous one-sided sell-off is weakening.
As the market stabilized, traditional risk assets also rebounded. Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 2.5% on Friday, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.5%, with funds flowing back into the technology and growth sectors. This shift also helped crypto assets stop their short-term decline.
ETF funds continue to flow out.
However, institutional funds have not rebounded in tandem. SoSoValue data from May 29th shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded another $228 million net outflow, marking the ninth consecutive trading day of outflows. The previous trading day saw an outflow of $733 million, the highest single-day outflow this year.
Based on the current round of continuous outflows, the spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a cumulative outflow of approximately $2.85 billion. The Ethereum ETF is also under pressure, with a net outflow of $121 million on Thursday, extending the consecutive outflow days to 13 trading days, the longest such run since March 2025.
On-chain data also shows that following the recent decline, more Bitcoin holders are now experiencing unrealized losses. Glassnode data shows that the supply of Bitcoin in a loss-making state increased by approximately 580,000 BTC during this pullback, rising from approximately 7.75 million to 8.33 million. The corresponding holding costs are mainly concentrated around $72,900 to $76,600, meaning that this range may subsequently transform from a support level into an area of more concentrated selling pressure.
$6.1 billion in options expire today
Traders are currently also watching Deribit's Bitcoin options contracts expiring today. Platform data shows that approximately 83,660 Bitcoin options will expire today, with a notional value of about $6.1 billion, and the most significant price point is around $75,000.
Looking at the distribution of open interest, the largest number of call options are concentrated at a strike price of $80,000, while the largest number of put options are concentrated around $75,000. These two price levels have therefore become the main observation range for short-term trading.
Meanwhile, US inflation data continues to suppress market expectations for further monetary easing. The April personal consumption expenditures price index showed overall inflation rose to 3.8% year-on-year, while core PCE rose to 3.3% year-on-year. Energy prices rose 17.9% year-on-year, related to disruptions caused by the conflict with Iran. Although core PCE rose only 0.2% month-on-month, below market expectations, traders have significantly reduced their bets on a Fed rate cut in 2026.
