Wintermute has announced its entry into the prediction market, offering buy and sell quotes on active event contracts across major platforms. The company disclosed that this business will focus on improving liquidity for popular contracts, alleviating issues such as insufficient order book depth and weak execution prices.
Business expansion to event contracts
The company states that prediction markets now require trading infrastructure similar to that of digital asset markets, including execution, custody, collateral management, and risk control. Wintermute believes its existing system can directly support such event contract trading.
Wintermute stated that it has processed over $5 trillion in trading volume across more than 50 digital asset exchanges. This experience will be used to provide more continuous two-sided liquidity, helping users obtain tighter bid-ask spreads and deeper order book depth in active contracts.
Industry transaction volume expands rapidly
The announcement cited industry data showing that the cumulative transaction volume of the forecast market in 2026 exceeded US$60 billion, with monthly transaction volume reaching US$20 billion to US$25 billion.
Polymarket saw over $3 billion in trading volume related to the 2024 US presidential election, demonstrating user demand for real-world event trading. Another platform, Kalshi, is also expanding rapidly. Data cited in the announcement states that in the six months leading up to early 2026, Kalshi's annualized trading volume rose from $52 billion to $178 billion, and currently accounts for over 90% of US prediction market activity.
Thin order book and regulatory pressure coexist
In addition to increased trading activity, capital is also rapidly flowing into this sector. The announcement mentioned that Kalshi recently completed a $1 billion Series F funding round, reaching a valuation of $22 billion, indicating that institutional investors' interest in this area has clearly intensified.
For users of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, the entry of professional market makers will primarily impact the execution of large orders. Wintermute believes that market makers can narrow bid-ask spreads and improve the efficiency of executing larger positions.
This is important because many prediction markets have long suffered from a thin order book. Especially in event contracts such as those related to central bank decisions, users often face insufficient order book depth and unsatisfactory execution prices when placing large orders. A report cited in the announcement also stated that between April 2024 and April 2025, approximately $40 million in arbitrage profits on Polymarket came from pricing discrepancies.
Additional information:The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a preliminary notice of proposed rules on March 16, 2026, focusing on manipulation risks and the regulation of event contracts. The notice also stated that at least 11 states have moved forward with legislation targeting prediction markets, and unregulated prediction markets could potentially result in approximately $600 million in lost tax revenue.
