A recent report from Citigroup states that the tokenization of real-world assets is moving from pilot programs to mainstream business. The bank projects that the benchmark size of the tokenized securities market will reach $5.5 trillion by 2030; depending on the rate of adoption, the range could be between $2.7 trillion and $8.2 trillion.
Traditional financial infrastructure begins to connect
Citigroup believes that the primary driving force behind this market expansion comes from direct integration with traditional trading and clearing systems. The report notes that several core U.S. market infrastructure institutions are incorporating tokenization into their existing trading systems, rather than leaving it to standalone experimental platforms.
In early May, the U.S. Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) announced that it would launch limited production trading of tokenized securities in July, with a wider rollout scheduled for October. Nasdaq is also advancing its blockchain-based stock issuance framework, potentially launching as early as 2027. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the NYSE, is also developing its tokenized stock business.
Citigroup stated that when these traditional institutions incorporate tokenization into their main capital markets systems, it signifies that this business is entering a phase of larger-scale practical application.
Stablecoin expansion drives demand for on-chain US Treasury bonds
The report identifies the second key driver as the development of stablecoins and digital bank deposits. These allow assets and cash to be settled simultaneously on-chain, thereby reducing settlement time.
Citigroup projects that the standard stablecoin market will grow to $1.9 trillion by 2030. This growth in stablecoins alone could generate approximately $1 trillion in new demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. This is because stablecoin issuers typically need to hold highly liquid assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds as reserves.
On the securities side, Citi expects tokenization to primarily focus on publicly traded assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds and U.S.-listed stocks, rather than the less liquid and slower-transfer private market.
- By 2030, approximately 10% of the US Treasury bond market will be tokenized.
- Approximately 3% of the US public stock market has completed tokenization.
- If 10% of US investors shift to digital platforms, the demand for tokenized stocks could reach $2.6 trillion.
In contrast, complex asset classes such as private credit and private equity are projected to each have a global size of around $100 billion by 2030, significantly lower than publicly traded assets.
Advances in US regulation are seen as a contributing factor.
Citigroup also listed the progress of U.S. digital asset regulation as the third driving factor. The report noted that a key U.S. digital asset legislation is progressing to the full Senate vote, and increased regulatory clarity will help institutions increase investment.
According to the information in the article, on May 14, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed the relevant bill process by a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, ending the previous four-month standstill and advancing the bill to the next stage.
However, Citi also points out that this shift will not completely replace the old system in the short term. In the coming years, traditional financial systems and on-chain systems are more likely to operate in parallel.
Larger institutions may occupy a stronger position
Citigroup believes that large financial institutions that control both underlying assets and payment channels will ultimately have a greater advantage. The report refers to these institutions as "structural coordinators," namely banks or investment institutions that can complete asset issuance, fund settlement, and transaction processing within their own networks.
This means that the expansion of the tokenized securities market is not just a technological upgrade, but may also reshape the division of labor in securities issuance, custody, and settlement.
