Foreign media reports indicate that Bitcoin's year-to-date performance has significantly lagged behind the US stock market, prompting a re-evaluation of its asset class in the current cycle. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at approximately $72,648, down 1.46% in the past 24 hours and down over 16% year-to-date; in contrast, the S&P 500 rose to approximately 7,580 points during the same period, up over 10% year-to-date.
Correlation fluctuations increase in the short term
The article cites data from CryptoQuant, stating that from January to May 2026, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 will maintain a moderate positive correlation overall. Although the two may have diverged in the short term, the longer-term data has not shown a significant weakening.
During May, the 30-day correlation dropped to around 10% before rebounding to around 48% by the end of the month. In contrast, the 90-day and 180-day correlations remained relatively stable, ranging from 45% to 60%.
This means that although Bitcoin has failed to keep up with the rise of US stocks in the short term, in the longer term, its trading characteristics are still closer to those of risk assets than to safe-haven assets that operate independently of the stock market.
On-chain metrics show that selling pressure remains.
The article also mentions that the SOPR metric, which measures on-chain profit-taking, has fallen below 1, currently hovering around 0.99. This drop below the neutral line typically indicates weakening profit-taking in the market, with some holders starting to sell at a loss.
Looking at realized profits and losses, from January to June 2026, Bitcoin's net realized profits and losses were mostly below zero, indicating that investors generally lost more money than they made. Although there was some improvement in April and early May, the rebound failed to hold.
As of June 1st, this indicator was approximately negative $27.9 million, when the price of Bitcoin was close to $72,600. The article argues that current market sentiment remains weak, and the overall losses suffered by cryptocurrency holders have not yet been fully recovered.
The market is still observing asset positioning.
The article argues that Bitcoin's recent underperformance compared to traditional stock markets reflects the current pressure on the digital asset market. Especially given the backdrop of the S&P 500 hitting new highs, BTC's failure to move in tandem has further amplified discussions about its asset characteristics.
However, considering the recovery in medium- to long-term correlation and the stability of longer-term data, Bitcoin has not yet shown a clear decoupling from risk assets. Short-term pressure is more a reflection of market sentiment and selling pressure than a fundamental change in trading logic.
