Foreign media outlets believe that the cryptocurrency market has recently shown signs of new fund rotation. Bitcoin's market share has encountered resistance around the 60% mark, with funds flowing out for two consecutive weeks; meanwhile, some funds have begun to flow into altcoins. However, this rotation is not even, and currently it seems more like selective allocation to a few coins rather than a broad-based rally.
ETH still lags behind Bitcoin
The article mentions that in the past, when the market entered a risk-averse phase, funds often shifted to Ethereum after Bitcoin encountered resistance, which then drove the performance of a wider range of altcoins. The recent massive purchase of approximately $92 million worth of ETH by a whale has also brought renewed attention to whether this pattern will reappear.
However, in terms of relative performance, Ethereum has not yet taken the lead. The ETH/BTC ratio fell by nearly 7% this week, indicating that ETH is still underperforming BTC. Under these circumstances, it is difficult for the market to judge whether altcoins will launch across the board.
Market share gains are hampered while the index rebounds.
The article points out that Bitcoin's market share is currently hovering around the 60% resistance zone and has declined for two consecutive weeks. While ETH has not shown significant strength, funds are flowing into some altcoins, which is seen as a signal of a change in market structure.
Similar changes are observed in on-chain data. According to BlockchainCenter, the altcoin seasonal index rose by nearly 70% during the same period. The article argues that this aligns with the recent shift of funds from Bitcoin to some altcoins, especially after BTC fell below $80,000 in late May, when this rotation became more pronounced.
Altcoins remain weak, but the market is starting to discuss bottoming out.
Overall, the altcoin market remains under pressure. The article states that Bitcoin has fallen by nearly 20%, while the S&P 500 has declined by 2.6% over the same period. The TOTAL3 altcoin market capitalization, excluding Ethereum, has fallen back to approximately $520 billion, approaching levels seen in November 2024.
Trading data also shows that pressure remains. The article mentions that on the Binance platform, nearly 83% of altcoins are still trading below their 200-day moving averages, one of the weaker readings in this cycle, indicating that most altcoins have not yet recovered their long-term trend levels and selling pressure has not subsided significantly.
However, some analysts believe this persistent weakness is similar to the latter part of the 2017 cycle, when the market gradually formed a significant low after a prolonged period of weakness. Considering the current macroeconomic risk aversion, the weakening stock market, and liquidity fluctuations, the article argues that the current cycle's temporary low may not necessarily be confirmed first by Bitcoin; the possibility that altcoins may bottom out first cannot be ruled out.
