After Ethereum fell towards $1,500, market sentiment weakened significantly, and leveraged liquidations amplified the decline. However, on-chain data does not entirely point to a uniformly pessimistic outlook. Some large addresses are still increasing their holdings, and the staking queue continues to exceed exit requests, indicating that long-term funds have not withdrawn in a synchronized manner.
Whales continue to adjust their portfolios during the downtrend.
The report mentions that a wallet associated with Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin reportedly transferred 80,000 ETH to a wallet associated with MakerDAO, equivalent to approximately $123.5 million according to the article. The article argues that this move is more like adjusting positions and reducing liquidation risk during a market downturn, rather than a direct sell-off.
Another set of on-chain data shows that wallets associated with Chun Wang withdrew approximately 17,560 ETH from Binance within 16 hours, equivalent to nearly $28.7 million according to the article. Large sums of money transferring ETH out of exchanges during market panic are usually seen as indicating a preference for holding rather than short-term selling.
Furthermore, the article also mentions that wallets associated with the Pando Rings hack reportedly used nearly 10 million DAI to buy over 6,200 ETH around $1,600. While these addresses have different backgrounds, they all share the commonality of not significantly reducing their holdings during the price drop.
The queue for pledged shares is still far higher than the number of withdrawal applications.
Besides spot market flows, staking data is also considered an important indicator of the current market. Validator queue data shows that approximately 3.1 million ETH are waiting to be staked, worth about $5.45 billion according to the article; meanwhile, approximately 49,700 ETH are waiting to be unstaking.
- Pending staking: Approximately 3.1 million ETH
- Awaiting exit: Approximately 49,700 ETH
- The pledging demand is approximately 62 times the exit demand.
Based on this data, current pledging demand significantly exceeds exit demand. The article points out that in previous cycles, strong pledging participation typically meant a reduction in available supply, thus mitigating panic selling pressure. While this demand has slowed slightly since early May, the overall gap remains substantial.
The $1500 level has become the short-term focus.
The article argues that ETH's continued pressure recently is mainly due to the broader market environment. After Bitcoin broke through key support, the overall crypto market weakened, and the forced liquidation of leveraged positions further depressed the performance of mainstream assets, including ETH.
From a price structure perspective, ETH broke through multiple support levels during its decline, subsequently approaching the $1500 area. This level has long been considered a price range with strong demand by some traders, and therefore has become a key focus of the current market.
The article also mentions that the liquidation heatmap shows a dense area of liquidity above $1500 to $1700. If ETH can stabilize in the current area and reclaim some resistance levels, short covering and the return of funds from outside the market could drive a more significant price rebound.
However, the report also points out that the $1,500 level remains a key short-term support. If this level is breached, market expectations for stabilization and a rebound will weaken significantly, and ETH may face further downward pressure.
