XPL surged 9.5% in the past 24 hours, reaching a price of around $0.068, but on-chain fund flows did not strengthen accordingly. Multiple data points indicate that during the token's rebound, project teams and large holders continued to reduce their holdings, indicating a divergence between short-term bullish sentiment and spot selling pressure.
The project transferred 150 million tokens to Binance.
Onchain monitoring account Onchain Lens reported that the Plasma team transferred 150 million XPL tokens to Binance, worth approximately $9.64 million at the time. The market typically views such transfers from project-related wallets to exchanges as a potential signal of selling pressure.
Meanwhile, Nansen data shows that the top 100 XPL holders reduced their holdings by approximately 20% in the past 24 hours. This means that the reduction was not only from the project team, but also from top holders who were simultaneously reducing their exposure.
The derivatives market still leans towards short-term long positions.
Unlike the signs of selling in the spot market, derivatives traders remain bullish. Coinglass data shows that the weighted average funding rate for open interest in XPL has risen to a positive value of 0.0055%, indicating that long positions in the perpetual contract market are still paying a premium.
Looking at the liquidation distribution, there are approximately $1.74 million in long positions around $0.0629, and approximately $333,000 in short positions around $0.0709. In terms of intraday structure, the long positions are larger and still dominate the trading rhythm in the short term.
- High leverage zone below: $0.0629
- High leverage zone above: $0.0709
- Long position size: approximately $1.74 million
$0.07020 remains a key level.
The daily chart shows that XPL previously broke below the $0.07020 support level. This level has been crucial since September 2025, and the current price is in a pullback phase towards this level.
If the price continues to be capped below $0.07020, the downtrend may continue; a further drop below $0.060 could extend the correction. Conversely, a move back above $0.07020 would significantly ease the aforementioned bearish bias.
From a technical perspective, XPL is still trading below its 200-day exponential moving average, and the ADX has fallen to 16.24, indicating that the current trend is weak and the rebound momentum is not yet stable. Overall, although XPL has rebounded in the short term, on-chain selling and key resistance levels remain two signals that the market needs to pay attention to.
