SIREN has surged 44% in the past 24 hours. Foreign media outlets point out that while this rally propelled it to the top of the day's gainers list, data from derivatives and spot markets indicate a divergence in short-term sentiment, suggesting that further upward price movement faces greater resistance.
Contract funds flowed in rapidly
Speculative trading on SIREN has clearly intensified. Reports indicate that its open interest (OI) for futures contracts increased by 46% in 24 hours, reaching $91 million, meaning approximately $42 million in new funds entered the contract market.
Typically, a rapid rise in OI (Online Interest) indicates that traders are positioning themselves for greater volatility, but it doesn't inherently suggest a continued one-sided upward trend. More noteworthy than the simultaneous rise in price is the fact that the funding rate for perpetual contracts has turned negative.
Funding fees turn negative
As of press time, SIREN's OI weighted funding rate was -0.0203 and is still declining. Foreign media believe this indicates that short positions in the perpetual contract market are increasing, with some traders betting on a price pullback.
This creates a divergence in the current market: on one hand, prices are rising rapidly and contract open interest is expanding, while on the other hand, short positions are increasing. Such a structure usually indicates greater market divergence, and subsequent volatility may be further amplified.
Indicators suggest that valuations are too high.
The report also mentioned that SIREN has entered overvalued territory according to technical indicators. The Bollinger Bands show that the current price is in a relatively high range; meanwhile, the Money Flow Index (MFI) has risen to 98, reflecting very concentrated buying sentiment in the market.
Foreign media believe that such readings do not necessarily mean that prices will immediately fall, but they often indicate that buying pressure is nearing exhaustion. Once new funds slow down, prices are more likely to retrace.
Profit-taking occurred in the spot market.
Unlike the high activity in the futures market, the spot market has not provided the same strong support. Reports show that SIREN has seen net inflows into exchanges for five consecutive days, totaling approximately $2.68 million. This typically indicates that holders are transferring tokens to trading platforms, preparing to sell or already realizing profits.
If spot selling pressure persists, and the futures market remains dominated by highly leveraged funds, price movements will be more susceptible to profit-taking. Based on this, foreign media outlets believe that after a short-term surge, the risk of further declines for SIREN is increasing.
