Ethereum has rebounded nearly 5% in the past two days after falling to around $1,600. However, judging from changes in on-chain positions and the distribution of derivatives, this rebound is more like a short-term correction, and the market has not yet reached a consensus on the future direction.
Short positions are still increasing.
Data from the on-chain tracking platform Lookonchain shows that the address Pension-usdt.eth has added another 10,000 ETH to its short position, amounting to approximately $16.8 million, bringing its total short position to approximately 60,000 ETH, or about $101 million at the time.
The position was then showing a floating profit of approximately 22.9%, corresponding to a gain of over $7.7 million. Data shows that this trader had previously profited on 22 consecutive trades, accumulating gains exceeding $45 million. Their continued addition to short positions indicates that some large traders are still betting on further declines in ETH.
Long-term holders begin to buy back in.
Meanwhile, Onchain Lens disclosed that an early Ethereum holder who sold Bitcoin and Ethereum before the previous decline has started to build a position again.
This address previously sold 60,000 ETH at an average price of approximately $2,040, cashing out about $117 million, and also sold 9,442 wstETH, worth about $24 million. After the price dropped, the address bought back 60,088 ETH at an average price close to $1,606, amounting to about $95.3 million, and also bought 10,000 wstETH, worth over $21 million.
There is still a large liquidation range below.
CoinGlass data shows that over $2 billion in leveraged long positions remain concentrated below the $1400 to $1600 range. Such areas of high liquidity tend to attract prices closer to these levels, meaning that ETH may still face further downside potential before a sustained rebound materializes.
From a technical perspective, ETH previously broke below its upward channel, and the cumulative volume difference indicates strong selling pressure at one point. Although the MACD histogram remains in negative territory, the bearish momentum has weakened. If buying pressure continues to increase, ETH has a chance to gradually stabilize in the current area; however, if whales continue to exert pressure and the liquidation zone below is triggered, the price may fall further.
