Foreign media reports that Bernstein's latest view suggests that continued pressure on Bitcoin in 2026 does not necessarily indicate a deterioration in the long-term trend. With retail investor enthusiasm cooling, the market participant structure is changing, with an increase in the proportion of pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, asset management institutions, and corporate treasuries.
Cash flow has slowed significantly this year.
A study released by Bernstein on Monday noted that since 2026, spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buying have seen a combined net inflow of approximately $12 billion, significantly lower than the approximately $60 billion for the entire year of 2025. The report also stated that while spot Bitcoin ETFs manage a total of approximately $75 billion in assets, they have experienced a net outflow of approximately $2.6 billion this year.
The article argues that one reason for the slowdown in funding is that some retail investors have shifted their attention to AI-related stocks. Bernstein concludes that the lack of strong retail investor chasing in this cycle may not be a bad thing; it could actually reduce the market noise previously driven by high-volatility speculation.
Strategy continues to increase its holdings.
Among institutional buyers, Strategy remains the most watched representative. Bernstein stated that the company raised approximately $7.5 billion this year through an STRC preferred stock offering and used the funds to purchase approximately 100,000 bitcoins.
According to the report, Strategy currently holds over 845,000 Bitcoins, estimated to be worth approximately $53.6 billion. Bernstein uses this to illustrate that despite market corrections, corporate treasury buyers have not completely withdrawn, and some institutions are still maintaining a long-term allocation strategy.
Technical pressure exists, but the target remains unchanged.
Meanwhile, a divergence is emerging within the digital asset industry. Bernstein noted that some listed mining companies are increasing their investment in AI infrastructure, with companies like IREN and Cipher Digital benefiting from rising demand for AI data center capacity. This also indicates that some companies originally focused on crypto businesses are extending their growth into AI-related fields.
As of the time of this report, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $63,800, a rebound from its previous low of nearly $59,000. The article notes that the daily chart shows a recovery from oversold territory, but it remains below key retracement levels, and the short-term structure has not yet fully recovered.
Technical indicators cited by Bernstein show that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from deeply oversold territory, but the money flow indicator remains below the zero line, indicating that capital outflows have not yet completely reversed. Shorter-term charts show that Bitcoin remains in a weak pattern after falling from around $74,000, with the area around $64,800 considered a key short-term resistance zone.
Despite this, Bernstein maintains his year-end price target of $150,000 for Bitcoin. The article argues that the lack of retail investor frenzy in this cycle will not weaken its long-term "store of value" narrative. According to his judgment, if the market continues to shift towards institutional dominance, the way prices fluctuate and the sources of funding may differ from previous cycles.
