The crypto market came under downward pressure after the Federal Reserve's latest meeting released hawkish signals. Bitcoin and Ethereum both fell by about 5% in the past 24 hours, and bearish bets in the market intensified, with traders becoming more cautious about the short-term trend of the two assets.

Interest rate expectations are shifting towards tighter

Market focus is on changes in the interest rate path. Although the meeting kept interest rates unchanged, traders have clearly lowered their expectations for rate cuts this year. Polymarket's bets indicate that the market is now more inclined to believe that there will be no rate cuts in 2026; CME FedWatch reflects a further shift in interest rate trading expectations toward a possible rate hike this year.

This change directly dampened sentiment towards risk assets. Crypto assets weakened after the meeting, with Bitcoin last trading at around $62,499 and Ethereum at around $1,682.

BTC bearish bets rise to over 70%

In Myriad's "Pump or Dump" prediction market, users need to predict whether an asset will first reach a higher or lower target. As prices fell, the bearish probability for Bitcoin-related contracts rose by more than 10 percentage points in 24 hours.

Currently, traders are more inclined to bet that Bitcoin will first fall to $55,000 rather than rebound to $84,000, with the former having a probability of nearly 72%. This change has exceeded the decline in Bitcoin's spot price during the same period.

• BTC fell by about 5% in the last 24 hours.
• Predicting market bets to start at $55,000
• The corresponding bearish probability is close to 72%.

ETH is more likely to test $1,500 first.

Bearish sentiment is stronger for Ethereum. Myriad data shows that traders are currently betting that ETH will fall to $1,500 first, rather than rise to $3,000 first.

In the past 24 hours, this betting probability has increased by about 4 percentage points; if we extend the timeframe to the past month, the cumulative increase has exceeded 23 percentage points. At the current price of approximately $1,682, ETH is only about 12% away from $1,500, but to return to $3,000, it would need to rise by about 78%.

• ETH fell by about 5% in the last 24 hours.
• The probability of seeing $1,500 first is approximately 83%.
• It would need to rise by approximately 78% to reach $3,000.