Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital stated that while the US-Iran agreement has boosted overall risk appetite, Bitcoin may not necessarily benefit in tandem. The firm believes the market remains focused on potential continued selling pressure from Strategy's preferred stock dividend payments, a factor that could suppress BTC's short-term performance.

Dividend pressure becomes the focus

QCP points out that Strategy currently has insufficient buffers to cover dividend payments, with cash reserves sufficient for approximately 7.5 months. If subsequent financing conditions do not improve, the company may need to continue disposing of some of its Bitcoin holdings to fulfill related payment obligations.

These dividend obligations are primarily related to its preferred stock financing instruments, including Stretch (ticker symbol STRC). These instruments have previously been an important channel for Strategy to raise funds to continue buying Bitcoin, but recent price weakness has begun to raise concerns about financing costs.

• STRC closed at $89.
• Investors who bought at $100 last month are now facing a paper loss of approximately 11%.
• Based on current prices, the new buyer's yield is approximately 12.92%.

QCP believes that if Strategy further increases its yields to attract buying, its financing costs will continue to rise; if not, the prices of related securities may continue to be under pressure. Both scenarios will increase market attention to its subsequent financing and holding arrangements.

The company's response failed to quell concerns.

In response to market skepticism, Strategy recently stated that, based on its current Bitcoin holdings, the company has the capacity to cover dividend payments for up to 32 years, attempting to alleviate concerns about its solvency.

However, this explanation did not completely dispel doubts. Some market participants believe that if the company does start selling more Bitcoin in the future, the value of its holdings will shrink due to price declines, and its so-called coverage capacity will also decrease. In other words, the coverage period is based on the premise of stable Bitcoin prices.

Some argue that this response has actually reinforced market concerns that Strategy may remain on the seller's side in the long term. This is because if dividend payments and financing arrangements continue to rely on the value of the holdings, any future reduction in holdings could be amplified and interpreted by the market.

Options funds guard against a decline

The QCP also noted that the previous Bitcoin correction was not entirely driven by strategy factors. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance was also a significant factor contributing to the pressure on risk assets.

Options data shows that large traders in the market are still actively hedging against the risk of Bitcoin price declines, focusing on the $62,000 and $60,000 strike prices. With the second quarter nearing its end, put option trading at these two price levels has been relatively active, indicating that funds are still preparing for short-term volatility.

Overall, QCP believes the market is not currently betting on Bitcoin quickly falling below $60,000. However, if Strategy subsequently confirms further Bitcoin sales, the current position structure could be rapidly adjusted, potentially limiting BTC's upside potential.