After the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, market attention shifted to policy rhetoric. As the Fed continued to emphasize the importance of suppressing inflation, sentiment towards risk assets weakened, putting renewed pressure on the crypto market, with privacy coin Monero (XMR) also continuing its decline.
XMR fell for the third consecutive trading day on Friday, remaining below $330. The report noted that while the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held rates steady as expected, its hawkish post-meeting statements further dampened investor expectations for a near-term rate cut.
Markets are betting on a further postponement of interest rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at the post-meeting press conference that the Fed will continue to prioritize bringing inflation back to its 2% long-term target, and is currently more focused on price stability than on quickly shifting to an easing policy.
This statement was interpreted by the market as indicating that the Federal Reserve is not prepared to cut interest rates in the short term. Meanwhile, some traders have even begun to price in the possibility of another rate hike. The report cited market expectations indicating that the probability of a rate hike at the next policy meeting is approximately 30%.
Risk appetite weakened in tandem. The crypto market fear and greed index fell to 15 on Thursday, down from 22 the previous day, remaining in the "extreme fear" zone, reflecting a continued contraction in investor exposure to high-risk assets.
XMR has yet to recover key price levels.
In terms of price performance, XMR is currently still below the Bollinger Band middle line at approximately $340, and also below several major exponential moving averages. The 50-day moving average is around $359, while the 100-day and 200-day moving averages are concentrated around $366, forming a relatively dense resistance zone above.
The report suggests that although Monero is currently in a pullback phase, some momentum indicators have improved slightly. The MACD histogram remains positive, and the MFI is around 65, indicating that fund inflows have not completely disappeared. However, these signals are more likely to be signs of a rebound within a pullback than a trend reversal.
The support level to watch is $291.
In the short term, XMR will first face resistance around $340, followed by the $359 level. If it continues to rise, the $366-$367 area will be stronger resistance, with the upper Bollinger Band at around $389 being the next higher hurdle.
The next support level is around $291, near the lower Bollinger Band. A break below this level could extend the decline in XMR and potentially deepen the pullback.
Overall, with high macroeconomic uncertainty and tight monetary policy, risk appetite in the crypto market has not yet recovered significantly, and the privacy coin sector continues to be under pressure.
