Following signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, market risk aversion subsided, driving a rebound in Bitcoin from its lows this week. On June 20th, Bitcoin briefly rose to $63,770 before retreating to around $63,600, a daily gain of approximately 2.4%.
Previously, Bitcoin had retreated from its high of nearly $67,200 on June 15, falling as low as approximately $62,300 on June 18. That decline was accompanied by continued outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, escalating geopolitical tensions, and overall pressure on risk assets.
Ceasefire expectations fueled a recovery in risk assets.
Reuters, citing US officials, reported that Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire, scheduled to take effect on Friday. The report also noted that Iran has stated its willingness to resume diplomatic contact with the United States if the conditions are met.
This development eased market concerns about an escalation of the conflict. International oil prices subsequently weakened, with both Brent and WTI crude near multi-week lows, falling nearly 8% during the week. Safe-haven assets such as gold and silver also declined, indicating that some funds are shifting back to higher-risk assets.
Derivative positions boosted the rebound strength
In addition to improved risk appetite, position adjustments in the derivatives market have also amplified this rebound. The report mentions that approximately $10.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire on June 26, and the market is closely watching position changes before and after expiration.
CoinGlass data shows that the largest liquidation zone above the current price is between $64,000 and $65,000, with additional liquidity around $66,000. If the price continues to rise, short covering and forced liquidation could further amplify volatility.
- Key liquidation range: $64,000 to $65,000
- Secondary liquidity zone: around $66,000
- Options expiring size: approximately US$10.6 billion
ETFs continue to see outflows, with the market focusing on the $62,000 support level.
Institutional funding has not fully recovered. SoSoValue data shows that US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of over $226 million this week, continuing the withdrawal trend that began in mid-May. However, compared to previous weeks, selling pressure has eased somewhat.
The report also noted that the $62,000 level remains a key short-term resistance. CoinGlass heatmaps show significant liquidity concentrated in the $61,800 to $62,000 range. A break below this level could see the market retest the June lows of around $59,200.
Going forward, traders are still watching developments in US-Iran talks, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and ETF inflows. These factors will continue to influence whether Bitcoin can sustain its rally.
