Foreign media reports suggest that Bitcoin may be nearing a temporary low in this round of price movements, with some long-term indicators returning to ranges seen during previous bottoming phases. However, exchange buying and US spot ETF fund flows are not currently aligned, and a clearer confirmation signal is still lacking for the short-term trend.
The article cites data from CryptoQuant, stating that the CVDD metric, which measures the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders, has fallen to 0.3, entering extremely low territory. Historically, similar levels occurred around 2019 and 2022, followed by significant market rebounds.
CVDD returns to historical lows
CVDD, short for Cumulative Value Burn Days, primarily estimates the lower bound of Bitcoin's fair value by analyzing the on-chain behavior of long-term holders. The article argues that this indicator has once again fallen into extremely low territory, suggesting the market is approaching a representative undervaluation level from past cycles.
Price close to 200-week moving average
From a weekly chart perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading near its 200-week simple moving average. This level has acted as structural support multiple times in previous cycles. The last time the price returned to this moving average, Bitcoin consolidated for an extended period between July 2022 and October 2023 before embarking on a new upward trend.
Based on this, the article speculates that if the market replicates a similar pattern again, it may experience a rapid rebound or first maintain a longer period of sideways movement. The article also mentions that the cumulative/distribution indicator shows that buying pressure remains, with related trading volume data at 17.11 million Bitcoins, indicating that short- to medium-term funds have not completely withdrawn.
Divergence in fund flows between exchanges and ETFs
Whether the rebound can continue depends on whether real buying pressure expands. Over the past 7 days, centralized exchanges have seen net buying in the spot market, with a net purchase of approximately $234.75 million, while the total purchase of Bitcoin during the same period was approximately $9.36 billion, indicating that some funds are still buying on dips.
However, signals from the US market are weak. The article states that overall net outflows from US spot ETFs remain skewed towards selling, with net sales of approximately $226.84 million, indicating that selling pressure has not completely subsided. Until broader incremental demand emerges, Bitcoin is likely to continue its low-level consolidation in the short term.
