With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Middle Eastern crude oil supplies were abruptly disrupted. Asian and European refiners scrambled for alternative sources, causing WTI crude oil spot premiums to surge to a record high of $30-40 per barrel, even surpassing Brent crude in a rare occurrence. US state-owned refineries are caught in a dilemma – needing to ensure supply while bearing exorbitant procurement costs. Traders bluntly stated that buying refined petroleum products might be more cost-effective than refining.

After a 97% plunge in exports in March, Iraqi crude oil has finally seen a glimmer of hope with an "exemption"! The authorities have urgently notified Asian buyers to resume taking delivery of goods through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the details of the exemption are vague, and buyers must face the risks of transit. The Asian market is generally cautious and awaits further security guarantees from Iraq. The full recovery of the Strait remains highly uncertain.

JPMorgan analysts estimate that the Strait of Hormuz blockade has resulted in a daily loss of approximately 14 million barrels of effective global supply. OECD commercial crude oil inventories will reach an "operating minimum" of 842 million barrels after depleting 166 million barrels in April and another 67 million barrels in early May—at which point price will replace inventory as the primary balancing mechanism in the market. Even if the Strait reopens, supply recovery will require three phases and approximately four months.

Hyperliquid has already touched the threshold of oil pricing power.

USOIL traded at $140.35 as Trump’s Iran timeline shifted to Tuesday and Strait of Hormuz closure risks stayed in focus.