Author：TechFlow
Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
Deep Tide Guide:SpaceX secretly filed for an IPO with the SEC on April 1, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion and planning to raise up to $75 billion. If successful, this would break Saudi Aramco's record IPO of $29 billion. Following the news, the aerospace sector rallied across the board, with stocks like Rocket Lab and Intuitive Machines rising nearly 10%, and ETFs tracking the aerospace industry gaining as much as 5%.
However, the market controversy is equally intense: SpaceX merged with xAI, which had an annual loss of over $6 billion, in an all-stock deal in February this year, and Nasdaq's "tailor-made" 15-day fast-track inclusion rule has raised questions about whether passive funds were forced to buy in.
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Musk's space empire has officially begun its countdown to going public.
According to reports from multiple media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, and Reuters on April 1, SpaceX has secretly submitted a draft IPO registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), targeting a valuation of over $1.75 trillion, and plans to list on Nasdaq in June. This deal, internally codenamed "Project Apex," is expected to raise as much as $75 billion, more than 2.5 times the $29 billion record set by Saudi Aramco's 2019 IPO, and is poised to become the largest IPO in human capital market history.
SpaceX has assembled an unusual underwriting team of 21 banks, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup serving as lead underwriters. According to Reuters, Musk is considering allocating up to 30% of the IPO to retail investors.
Starlink's valuation of 1.75 trillion is anchored to xAI, and the merger will increase the size of the merger.
SpaceX's $1.75 trillion valuation target is primarily supported by its satellite internet business, Starlink. According to data from Teslarati and Spaceflight Now, Starlink had 9.2 million subscribers by the end of 2025, surpassed 10 million subscribers in February 2026, and generated over $10 billion in revenue in 2025. Analysts predict that this figure could reach $24 billion in 2026.
In February of this year, SpaceX completed its merger with Elon Musk's AI company xAI in an all-stock transaction. At the time of the transaction, SpaceX was valued at approximately $1 trillion, xAI at approximately $250 billion, and the combined entity was valued at approximately $1.25 trillion. According to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates, the combined company's revenue in 2026 will be close to $20 billion, with xAI contributing less than $1 billion.
From a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion to a target IPO valuation of $1.75 trillion, the $500 billion premium reflects the market's optimistic expectations for the combination of space and AI. However, there is also considerable skepticism. According to Benzinga, citing sources familiar with the matter, xAI was burning through approximately $1 billion per month at the time of its filing, and all 11 co-founders had left the company. A Hacker News user bluntly stated: xAI's annual net loss is approximately $6 billion, while SpaceX's net profit in a good year is approximately $8 billion; retail investors are essentially being forced to take over a massively loss-making AI company.
Nasdaq's "tailor-made" rules: 15-day rapid inclusion in the index
Behind SpaceX's IPO process, a Nasdaq rule change has sparked widespread controversy.
According to a Bloomberg report on March 30, Nasdaq announced new rules effective May 1: newly listed companies with a market capitalization ranking within the top 40 of the Nasdaq 100 index will only need to trade for 15 days after listing to be included in the index, whereas previously this waiting period was at least three months. Nasdaq also eliminated the 10% minimum free float requirement and allowed unlisted shares to be included in the total market capitalization calculation.
According to the Rio Times, SpaceX had previously listed "rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 after listing" as one of the conditions for choosing Nasdaq over the New York Stock Exchange. Inclusion in an index means that ETFs and index funds tracking that benchmark (Invesco QQQ alone manages over $300 billion in assets) will be required to buy new member stocks. Over $30 trillion in global assets are linked to major U.S. stock indices that are currently adjusting their rules.
Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth Management criticized the practice of a company demanding inclusion in an index from its IPO onwards as "highly unusual," effectively using passive funds to prop up the stock price. Hedge funds can accurately predict institutional buying frenzies within a 15-day window, positioning themselves to profit in advance. Renowned investor Michael Burry calculated on the X platform that if SpaceX went public with a valuation of $1.75 trillion and only issued 5% of its shares, the publicly traded shares would be worth approximately $87.5 billion. However, after Nasdaq weights the shares by a 5x multiplier, index funds would allocate weights based on SpaceX being a company with a market capitalization equivalent to $437.5 billion.
Aerospace stocks rallied across the board, but geopolitical risks loomed over the listing window.
On the day the news broke, the aerospace sector saw widespread gains. According to CNBC, AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab rose nearly 10%, Firefly Aerospace, the rocket manufacturer that went public last August, surged 16%, and York Space, which went public this January, rose 5%. Reuters reported that ETFs tracking the aerospace sector also strengthened, with Ark Space & Defense Innovation rising 2.9%, Procure Space rising 4.9%, and the Destiny Tech100 fund, which invests in unlisted technology giants, rising 4.9%.
Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management, stated that it's not uncommon for large IPOs to drive industry-wide repricing, and investors typically interpret IPOs as a positive signal for the sector. Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, bluntly stated that retail investors will frantically chase SpaceX's first day of trading, but also cautioned that SpaceX has been a private company for far longer than most publicly traded companies, with most of the capital gains already captured by private investors, raising questions about the space left for public market investors.
Georgetown University finance professor and IPO expert Reena Aggarwal points out that even with strong company fundamentals and ample investor interest, an IPO can still fail if market conditions are unfavorable. The current US-Iran war and soaring oil prices have just caused the Nasdaq to experience its biggest weekly drop in nearly a year, resulting in persistently high market volatility. She expressed hope that geopolitical tensions would ease by June. Polymarket data shows that SpaceX has a 63% probability of completing its IPO before June 30th, a figure that rose 10 percentage points after the news broke.
The three major AI giants are going public in quick succession, kicking off a super IPO cycle in 2026.
SpaceX is not an isolated case. According to Bloomberg, SpaceX is expected to be the first of this year's three mega-IPOs, with OpenAI and Anthropic both preparing for their public listings later this year.
According to Gizmodo analysis, the combined valuation of the three companies is close to $3 trillion. If they were to list in close succession and be included in indices via fast-track channels, it would put significant pressure on market liquidity. SpaceX's IPO is not only crucial to the aerospace industry but also a bellwether for the sustainability of the AI investment boom. Nvidia's GTC conference in March only triggered minor stock price fluctuations, indicating that the market's enthusiasm for AI concepts is waning. The market reaction to these three IPOs will largely determine the next phase of AI transactions.
