Ethereum rebounded after a general market downturn last week, returning to around $1685 on June 8th, but its year-to-date performance still lags behind most mainstream crypto assets. On-chain data, ETF fund flows, and changes in derivatives positions indicate that market risk appetite for ETH remains weak.
On-chain profit margins have shrunk significantly.
According to Glassnode data, only about 11% of the circulating supply of Ethereum is currently in an unprofitable state exceeding 300%, the lowest level since February 2017. Compared to the two upward cycles of 2017-2018 and 2020-2021, Ethereum has not experienced a large-scale, deep expansion of profitability in this cycle.
This means that highly profitable positions that previously supported market sentiment are decreasing. For investors, a thinning on-chain "profit cushion" often means that it is easier to reduce positions and stop losses during price fluctuations.
ETF and derivatives funds weakened in tandem.
The liquidity situation has not improved significantly. SoSoValue data shows that the US spot Ethereum ETF has seen a net outflow of approximately $885 million over the past month, continuing the outflow trend of the previous weeks, reflecting that institutional funds still have limited willingness to allocate to related products.
Meanwhile, during the market correction, open interest and leveraged long positions also declined significantly. The outflow of spot funds coupled with decreased activity in derivatives makes the sustainability of ETH's rebound still uncertain.
- The US spot Ethereum ETF has seen net outflows of approximately $885 million in the past month.
- The price of ETH was approximately $1685 on June 8th.
- Last week's low was close to $1505.
The $1700 level has become the short-term focus.
From a price structure perspective, ETH remains below the downtrend line formed since April. After rebounding from around $1509, the price is currently testing resistance in the $1710-$1714 range. If it can break above this level, the market will continue to focus on the $1874 and $1987 areas above.
However, short-term charts still show a cautious structure after the rebound. CoinGlass liquidation data shows a concentrated short liquidation zone around $1710 to $1730, while there are more long liquidation zones around $1600, $1580, and $1540. If volatility increases again, these areas could become battlegrounds for funds.
Analysts noted that before the bottom of past bear markets, Ethereum's weekly RSI often fell below 30 and remained there for a period. Currently, the indicator is still around 31, not yet fully entering the oversold zone commonly seen in previous cycles. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected US employment data led the market to lower its bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, and a stronger dollar continued to suppress the performance of risk assets, including crypto assets.
Overall, Ethereum is currently at a crossroads, characterized by weak on-chain profitability, outflows of institutional funds, and unresolved technical obstacles. Whether it can effectively hold above $1700 remains a crucial level to watch for its short-term price movement.
