Foreign media reports indicate that SpaceX experienced its first single-day drop since its IPO, fueling discussions about its valuation. The stock closed at $191.82 on Wednesday, a significant drop from its intraday high of $213.80, but still about 42% higher than its IPO price of $135.
The article argues that the current divergence is not merely a correction, but rather a market reassessing the gap between stock price, revenue size, and long-term growth targets. According to the article's data, SpaceX's revenue in 2025 was $18.7 billion, and its market capitalization once approached $2.52 trillion.
Options trading amplifies volatility
The commentary noted that Wednesday's sell-off occurred the day after SPCX options trading began. With the introduction of put options, the market now possessed more comprehensive short-selling and hedging tools for the first time, leading to a rapid increase in stock price volatility.
The article mentions that nearly one million call options were traded on the first day. For a stock with approximately 640 million shares outstanding, this is a significant amount. Based on this, the article argues that the market has shifted from a one-sided pursuit of rising prices to a two-way trading strategy.
Revenue targets raise questions
The article states that SpaceX's revenue grew by 33% year-on-year in 2025, reaching $18.7 billion. However, to achieve Musk's goal of $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, the company's revenue needs to increase more than 50 times within four years.
Market divergence is widening around this goal. Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, said on X that he previously avoided commenting on SPCX because the stock “is more like a meme stock than a fundamentally driven one.” U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren and CFRA Research analyst Keith Snyder have also raised questions from political and valuation perspectives, respectively.
The lifting of restrictions in August will be the next key milestone.
The article mentions that some trading research institutions have noticed increased activity in put options expiring in September. This is interpreted as some traders betting that the initial IPO frenzy may subside as more shares enter the market.
Regarding price expectations, the article states that analysts' 12-month target price range is between $63 and $310, with an average of approximately $188, slightly lower than Wednesday's closing price. The commentary suggests that the expiration of the lock-up period in August and subsequent earnings reports may provide a better indication of the company's fundamentals than short-term rebounds.
