Foreign media reports that a market analyst recently proposed a framework for assessing institutional settlement needs, attempting to explain the potential valuation range of XRP under different adoption rates. The article's core judgment is not based on short-term trading, but rather on three scenarios: cross-border payments, tokenized asset settlement, and the migration of pre-deposited funds from banks.
Three types of settlement scenarios
The analyst first incorporated SWIFT cross-border payment traffic into the model. According to the article, SWIFT processes approximately $150 trillion in cross-border payment messages annually. If XRP only handles 1% of this settlement share, the corresponding annualized settlement demand would be approximately $1.5 trillion.
The second part comes from tokenized assets. The Bank for International Settlements previously predicted that the size of tokenized assets could reach $16 trillion by 2030. The article calculates that if each asset turns over twice a year, and XRP accounts for 1% of settlement activity, the corresponding new demand would be approximately $320 billion.
The third part consists of funds in nostro and vostro accounts within the banking system. Analysts say that even if only about 5% of the relevant pre-deposits are migrated in the first year, no longer relying on traditional pre-funding arrangements, it would still generate an additional demand of about $500 billion.
How to derive the price range
In a broader calculation framework, the article combines cross-border payments, derivatives, and tokenized assets into an accessible market of approximately $514 trillion. If XRP captures only 1% of the market share, the article's estimated price would be around $51 per coin; if the market share rises to 10%, the corresponding price would be pushed up to $514 per coin.
The article also mentions that under the three more conservative scenario assumptions, XRP's target price range could be between $23 and $514 per coin. However, this conclusion rests on several preconditions, including the speed of actual institutional adoption, the feasibility of settlement pathways, and the realization of market share.
Regulatory status is considered a prerequisite
The article argues that XRP's ability to handle such institutional settlement traffic hinges not only on its technological capabilities but also on its regulatory status. Analysts suggest that after years of litigation between Ripple and US regulators, XRP has gained a clearer product positioning, which is seen as a crucial condition for its entry into larger-scale financial infrastructure scenarios.
The article also mentions that the connection with Swift is considered a practical observation point to test whether this logic holds true. If only a small amount of institutional traffic is settled through XRP in the future, the above valuation model will shrink significantly; only if adoption increases will price elasticity be reflected.
