Foreign media commentators believe that gold's trading performance in recent months has shifted away from that of traditional safe-haven assets, increasingly resembling that of risk assets like Bitcoin and US stocks. Economist Robin Brooks stated that the correlation between gold and the S&P 500 has risen above 0.50, a significant departure from its previously near-zero correlation.
Gold rose in tandem with US stocks
Brooks believes that gold has historically served as a hedge against geopolitical conflicts or rising economic pressures, but its performance has changed. According to him, as investors reduce their overall risk exposure, gold also falls along with US stocks, weakening its traditional safe-haven status.
He also mentioned that the long-term correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks is typically below 0.15, but during the "currency devaluation trade" from late 2025 to early 2026, this correlation rose to 0.55. During the same period, the correlation between gold and US stocks also strengthened, even approaching the level of Bitcoin.
Retail investor funds are accused of altering trading structures
Brooks attributes this shift in part to the significant rise in gold prices over the past year and a new wave of retail buying entering the market. He believes that while rising gold prices do mechanically increase the valuation of gold on central bank balance sheets, this does not mean that institutional investors are suddenly shifting heavily to gold or withdrawing en masse from dollar assets.
He stated that he had initially expected the high correlation between gold and the stock market to gradually decline after the market correction squeezed out short-term traders. However, judging from the current situation, this correlation may not be just a short-term phenomenon, and the trading structure of gold itself may have undergone deeper changes.
Market opinions on Bitcoin continue to diverge.
The article also mentions that Peter Schiff, a long-time bear on Bitcoin, recently warned that if Bitcoin falls below its daily low, the market could see another sharp sell-off. He believes that Bitcoin's previous rebound above $61,000 was more likely driven by short-term funds than a solid recovery.
However, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, maintains a bullish outlook. Kendrick stated that if Bitcoin reaches $100,000 by the end of 2026, investors looking back at the current stage might consider it a buying opportunity.
Overall, the core of this commentary is not to offer a single directional judgment, but rather to point out that the correlation between gold, Bitcoin, and US stocks is increasing. For the market, this means that the boundary between traditional "safe-haven" and "risky" assets may be becoming increasingly blurred.
