Author：Wall Street CN
International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol issued his strongest warning to date: the intensity of this Gulf energy shock exceeds the combined severity of the crises of 1973, 1979, and 2022, and the global economy is on the brink of a multi-dimensional supply collapse.
In an interview with the French newspaper Le Figaro on Tuesday, Birol revealed that more than 75 energy facilities in the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third of them severely damaged.
He stated that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed throughout April, the global loss of crude oil and refined products will be twice that of March – "We are entering a 'Black April'."
The unprecedented destructive power of this crisis lies in its far-reaching impact, extending far beyond the oil sector to include natural gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and the global trading system. Birol explicitly stated that the root of this crisis lies not in energy itself, but in geopolitics, which makes him deeply pessimistic about the future.
75 energy facilities were damaged, and the road to repair is long.
The IEA is currently conducting real-time monitoring of oil fields, refineries, and energy terminals in the Gulf region.
75 facilities have been attacked and damaged, with more than a third severely damaged. Repair work will cost hundreds of billions of dollars and will cause long-term disruptions to some energy flows, further tightening global supply and exacerbating shipping pressures on the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke point.
The pace of recovery varies significantly among the affected countries.
Birol pointed out that Saudi Arabia, with its strong engineering capabilities and ample financial resources, is expected to recover relatively quickly; while Iraq's situation is far more dire, with approximately 15 million people relying on oil and gas revenues for their livelihoods. The country has already lost about two-thirds of its oil revenues and is nearing the point of economic paralysis. He said:
"The Middle East has historically been a reliable global energy hub, and it will take a long time to regain that status."
Production halved, natural gas exports come to a complete standstill
Birol's description of the production losses is alarming. He stated that the countries involved are currently producing only slightly more than half of pre-war levels of oil; as for natural gas, exports have completely ceased.
In terms of time, the situation is rapidly deteriorating. "March was already difficult, but April will be even worse," Birol said. "If the Strait remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude oil and refined products as we did in March."
He used the seasons as an analogy: "April in the Northern Hemisphere usually signifies the arrival of spring, but right now, it might feel like the beginning of winter."
Developing countries are bearing the brunt, with Asian and African economies facing a debt crisis.
Among the groups most severely affected, Birol prioritizes developing countries.
He stated that the combined effects of high oil, gas, and food prices accelerating inflation will severely impact the economic growth of these countries. "I am concerned that the external debt of many developing countries will rise sharply," he said.
Regarding specific countries at higher risk of exposure, Birol named oil-import-dependent economies in Asia, including South Korea and Japan, as well as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, while also noting that African countries would be severely affected.
The common vulnerability of these countries lies in their limited fiscal flexibility, making them vulnerable to sustained external energy price shocks.
Nature of the crisis: geopolitically driven, with a highly uncertain recovery path.
In the interview, Birol repeatedly emphasized that this crisis is fundamentally different from previous energy supply shocks in history—it does not stem from the supply and demand imbalance in the energy market itself, but is the result of geopolitical conflicts directly destroying physical infrastructure.
This characteristic determines that its duration and repair path are highly dependent on the political situation, making it difficult for market pricing mechanisms to function effectively.
The simultaneous impact on multiple product categories—oil and gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and trade and shipping—has subjected the global supply chain to the most complex stress test in history.
Birol has been conveying a pessimistic outlook in numerous public interviews over the past few weeks, and this latest statement is the most cautionary of them all.
